First week. Pot: $2210.14 Bet: +34-23=2 Profit: +210.14$
Second week. Pot: $2344.34 Bet: +34-41=2 Profit: +$134.20
Third week. Pot: $2573.84 Bet: +46-43=3 Profit: +229.50$
Third week on betting days
1 day. Rates +8-10 +150.40$ -100.00$ Profit: +50.40$
Day 2 Rates +6-6=0 +72.50$ -60.00$ Profit: +12.50$
Day 3 Rates +16-14=1 +239.10$ -130.00$ Profit: +109.10$
Day 4 Rates: +6-9=2 +67.50$ -88.00$ Profit: -20.50$
Day 5 Rates: +10-4=0 +118.00$ -40.00$ Profit: +78.00$
..........................................................................................................................................
Total for 3 weeks: Bank 2573.84$ Rates: +114-107=4 Profit: +573.84$
We already wrote that to select a match for betting, we use falling odds and monitor the probable valuation of the event. Today I want to tell you what criteria we use to analyze a match before placing a bet. It should be noted that we usually do brief analysis according to 3-4 parameters. Because there are a lot of matches with delicious odds, but there is little time and sometimes you want to bet on everything. You have to hurry, do everything quickly, and haste is good only in catching fleas, as you know. For this reason, the percentage of pass rates is falling. So the "check for lice" must be carried out thoroughly, given the various aspects of the upcoming match.
So, let's look at the example of one match, how it happens. We have chosen the football match of the French championship, which will take place on February 28, but today some bookmakers offer an overpriced odds on zero handicap guests.
There is a desire to put a zero handicap on the guests, considering the odds to be value.
We compare teams according to our criteria.
- Position in the table
- Face-to-face meetings
- Face-to-face meetings at home/away
- Latest Games
- Games with higher teams
- Games with lower teams
- Games at home/away
- Sports component
- Movement of betting lines
- Team Losses
- Player Status
- Field state
- Weather
- Judge
- Add. information
As you can see, it turned out as many as 15 parameters. Surely something else can be added, but for now let's consider the existing ones.
Position in the table. Bastia is ahead by 5 points, higher by 6 lines. but the teams have exactly 8 victories each. By this parameter, we will still give 1 point in favor of the guests.
Face-to-face meetings. We take the last 5 games. 2-2=1 bonus point does not go to anyone.
Face-to-face meetings at home/away. Since we are going to bet on the odds of the guests, we are considering from this point of view. And in the last five face-to-face games, Bastia has never won away, only one draw and one defeat. Moreover, there are no guest wins since 1998. It makes no sense to look further at it. Ball goes to Lorient.
Latest Games. Ball of Bastia.
Games with superiors. Here we consider Lorient, since it is lower. One defeat in the last five matches with higher teams. 2 wins, 2 draws. plus 1 point
Downline games. Plus 1 Bastia point. 3 wins 1 draw
Games at home / away. A point is not awarded to anyone - both teams are at the bottom of the table according to their performance.
Sports component. Lorient needs glasses, plus 1 point
Betting lines. There is a slight drop in the victory of the hosts 5-6% for all beeches. It makes sense to take a closer look 3 days before the match, as usually the so-called popans are placed on the day of the match. So there are 2 options - or pre-made impressive, but not very big bet, or not very significant infa, because drop rate is low. In any case, beeches overestimate the odds for Bastia, so that they bet on her as well. A good doctor in this case would advise you to monitor the patient's condition for another day in the hospital, that is, to monitor the movement of odds. One point goes to Lorient for this moment.
Other parameters we don't usually check. I think it's important to watch them if you bet 1 match a week. We have a lot of games every day, and if any info comes across, we take it into account. But we don’t look specifically, there is not enough time.
What did we get. On points 4-3 in favor of Lorient. The advantage was due to a slight drop in odds for Lorient. 56% vs. 44% for Lorient to win. Books have 70% versus 30% Right now this means that the odds for guests of 3.35 are really 14% in value. You know, when I compared the teams, I didn’t look at the percentage of value that our machine gave out. And now I updated it and looked - 13.42% This is a value profit, and the value index is 1.091 real odds for guests 3.07 I'm shocked! With a small mathematical error, I calculated the value on a par with the machine)) But no, I'm not a genius. The machine and the bookmakers use the same data, they just consider it better, more professional. But in this case everything matched.
Here I must say that I took the maximum odds for guests from the marathon. Now let's check with other beeches. And what do we see? Above the real odds of 3.07, only three books give. The rest have from 2.40 to 3.05 Once again we are convinced that there is a value. Moreover, as many have noticed, there is also a fork of 1.20% If you put a maximum of 1.45 on Lorient at the Intervetten beech and 3.35 on Bastia at the marathon.
The third and fourth digits are the margin and the time of the last update
But the match is not suitable for our strategy. There is no big drop in odds, and we take value odds when there are clear chances of a call. And when 3 good beeches give off, there is reason to doubt a positive result. I personally tend to believe that the match will end in a draw.
Yesterday we did not make any bets, so far we have not chosen anything either, but closer to midnight there may be bets on falling odds - after dinner we will track everything)
Football is the favorite game of many millions of people. In every bookmaker you can see the richest line football betting with interesting odds and outcomes: this is one of the main sources of income for bookmakers.
Predicting a football match is quite difficult. Football is one of the few sports where a team can have a playing advantage during the entire match, and eventually lose. A scored goal, a penalty that they failed to score, and a referee's flag raised by mistake, and the mistakes of the athletes themselves have their role.
Today we will give some tips that will fully answer the question, how to analyze football matches and not lose.
Choose championships.
Most beginners bet on all the championships that they see in the betting line. In the short run, this can be profitable, especially if the difference between the teams is obvious. In the long run, this will lead to regular losses and the loss of the pot.
A player can thoroughly study several championships and place bets on them, or casually get acquainted with three dozen and focus only on odds. In the first case, the player acquires a certain reputation, receives a stable income, can consult and exchange opinions with specialists in other tournaments. In the second case, he also acquires a certain reputation and monthly leaves a solid part of his salary in the bookmaker's office.
Explore Championships
After you have chosen several championships, study their features, advantages and disadvantages. Find out how they live. Ideally, view tournament data for recent years five. This will allow not only to assess the level and nature of the championship, but also to get some information about the participants, to feel the style of each team, to see the potential.
Some teams have personal scores for each other, others are neutral. The championship can be international or national. In the second case, it is useful to familiarize yourself with the features of the chosen country.
Let's take the Turkish Championship as an example. The Black Sea teams - Rizespor, Samsunspor, Sebatspor - do not have personal accounts for each other and play without much strain. If you look at the Istanbul teams, then you can immediately stumble upon a century-old confrontation between Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, going on all fronts at once. And it doesn't matter who is to blame for this feud, and whether there was a culprit at all - the fact is that every match between the teams can lead to a clash of fans and a stabbing.
Conduct pre-game analysis
Having decided on the championship, it is necessary to conduct a pre-game analysis of football matches. It includes searching, studying and analyzing information. For example:
- Research and analysis of pre-match reviews from reputable independent sources. The sources can be both professional sports analysts and former players or coaches, referees and commentators.
- Studying information about injuries, substitutions, disqualifications. Along with this, it is worth analyzing how important the injured or disqualified athlete is for the team and whether he has a replacement from the reserve.
- Analysis of the significance of the championship. In some minor championships, elite teams do not give all the best full program or expose the second or third composition.
Statistics analysis
Analysis of football matches for betting includes analysis of statistics. In this case, the composition, mood, injuries and other indicators do not matter. Exclusively numbers, patterns, statistical indicators.
Statistical football match analysis may include the following:
- Team form. To evaluate it, you can look at how and with whom the selected team played the last ten matches. This is enough to conclude whether the players are on the rise or in the middle of a losing streak.
- History of personal meetings between teams. Moreover, the meetings that took place 20-50 years ago have secondary importance. It is important what is happening now and what has happened over the past two or three years.
- Trend analysis. Studying meetings 20-30 years ago makes sense if we have, for example, a series of five victories or five lost matches in which the team did not score a single goal. You can look at how similar meetings ended in the past and assess the possibility of repeating a similar situation in the future.
Using our advice and following your own game strategy, you will be able to receive a constant and stable income from football betting. Remember - even if you are one hundred percent sure that the chosen team will win, there is always a place for sensations in sports.
Always win at sports betting even professionals cannot, but it’s also not worth opening express trains, relying only on luck.
You need to constantly collect statistics, check it, identify influencing factors and try to predict the result of a particular match. This is not easy to do, but until you become an expert, you will not be able to earn much.
How to analyze football matches? Most often, bookmakers bet on football.
That is why we decided to talk about the analysis before the match starts. This helps to build the correct forecast. It is also not superfluous to compare your assumptions with .
Analyze football matches correctly
The analysis of football matches will not help you if you use the services of an unverified company.
Now there are many bookmakers on the Internet, but not everyone can be trusted. The best in this regard has been 1xstavka for several years now. From the site of this company, I constantly receive payments.
A proven and reliable service that offers bettors a wide range of opportunities. In addition to choosing a BC, it makes sense to learn how to apply various ones. All professionals use cunning tactics while making forecasts in parallel.
If you decide to become a true football betting expert, there is a lot to learn. Professionals spend years, then to earn large sums.
Everyone has the same chance therefore, the sooner you educate yourself, the sooner you will achieve good results.
Rules for Match Analysis
Checks must be made approximately 10 hours before the match. This time is enough to collect all the information and make assumptions about the results of the game.
What exactly needs to be checked? Here are the main factors:
- The state of the team is the most important factor influencing the results. Almost all teams have ups and downs, so sometimes even underdogs can pull ahead. The way the team played 4 years ago is outdated information, you need to look for up-to-date data.
- Coaching - this item includes team motivation. Most beginners don't pay attention to this. It has already been seen more than once how players literally snatch victory when they approach the first place in the tournament ladder. And if there is also a good coach, it can positively affect the game.
- Location of the game - playing on "their own land", the players have more chances to win. It would seem, how is the field different? But the factor is really influential. In general, this moment is debatable, since some teams are considered "away", i.e. they often win not in their own field.
- The results of personal meetings are a good hint for a better. You can look at the statistics on personal meetings and highlight the so-called "uncomfortable opponents". It is better to use it for totals and other types of bets. Those. when you are sure that the total score will not exceed some value.
- The composition of the team is one of the main factors. Lineups can change several times during the tournament, and with it the strength of the team changes. Sometimes the players cannot enter the field for a number of reasons, and sometimes the composition is deliberately changed by the coaches, you need to figure out which team is the favorite.
- Breaking news - sports events have to be constantly studied, because they help to understand how the teams are set up, what happened to the players in life, who got injured, and so on. Every little thing can affect how the team as a whole or each individual player plays.
- General statistics - this item could not be included in common list, since the analysis of football matches involves checking the results of other games. You need to compare not only goals scored, but also check corners, cards and much more. This will come in handy for betting.
You will have to spend a lot of time to analyze football matches, but without this it is unlikely that you will be able to win often.
This article (especially its second part) is rather philosophical. How to discover the formula for success? Does it currently exist? And what are its indicators?
I must say right away that this formula exists. It has a lot of indicators that need to be added up in order to achieve success as a result. I told you about the first indicators in the article “Three whales of success”, so if you forgot, I advise you to return to it.
One important indicator is the analysis of the situation. What it is and how winning depends on it, you can read in this article.
Experienced players do just that - they only bet on tennis, occasionally choose two sports and focus on them.
But if you have learned this rule, it is too early to rejoice. It is worth recognizing that bookmakers also leave people who are well versed in a particular sport as experts. And they - believe me - know what to do. They can change the odds and go for other tricks that the player, especially the beginner, will not see.
The second rule says: do not count the number of events, proceed better from the quality of these events. Don't bet on big number events. Perhaps in this way you increase your chances of winning - maybe something will fall out. But isn't it easier to analyze well 4-5 events in a particular sport, and only then make bets.
On the good analysis you will spend quite a decent amount of time, but also increase the chances of winning. Especially if you read something, collect information about teams, players and game results.
Approach the analysis creatively, not paying attention to trifles.
Don't rush, remember famous saying about the rush.
And now I will share with you the formula for success in sports betting:
Analytics + Statistics + Intuition = .
And for good and correct prediction win follows.
To make a correct prediction, you need to understand the game statistics.
Statistics in sports betting is a rather relative thing that cannot be relied upon with all confidence, but it still needs to be considered.
View the results of the last games of each of the teams or players. Pay attention to the results of games on the road and, conversely, at home, on the field known to them. See the composition of the teams, their physical and psychological condition- read the news chronicle, sometimes they write about divorces and other details of the personal life of the players. Don't forget to pay attention to player injuries.
There are also non-sporting factors in the analysis. They are called indirect. Their value can hardly be called insignificant - sometimes it is they who build the whole game and in the most direct way influence the results.
These factors include:
Weather conditions for matches
Fans from each side, their activity.
As the theater begins with a hanger, so sports betting begins with a preliminary forecast. A competent, correctly made forecast is a guarantee of your success, it will bring you money. But many players, beginners and not so, do not fully realize how important the correct approach to predicting a football match is, or do not know how to do it. Let's start with the basics, the clichés that you need to learn right now in order to place bets, honing your knowledge and skills to perfection.
Analysis - Start
.
— 4-5 or 40-50 matches a day? Of course, I am exaggerating, meaning that many players cannot decide for themselves how many matches per day to choose for analysis - a couple of threes that they are sure of, or take everything that the line of bookmakers offers. My recommendation is unequivocal - better quality than the quantity. If you make bets "at random", then it does not matter at all how many matches you bet on - you will still lose. And if you analyze games, then it is better to take a couple of matches from those leagues in which you understand and place bets on amounts that are convenient for you.
— The match is about to start, but I didn’t have time to analyze it, I’ll probably place a bet… No, it's not necessary to do so. Forecast is a matter of time, and if you have not had time to delve into the game, it is better to watch it without bets and draw some conclusions for yourself for the future. The best time for a bet - no more than 10 hours before the start of the event!
— Bet only on totals, or only on ... Everyone decides for himself only after a complete and thorough forecast of what outcomes and markets to bet on. Usually the conclusion suggests itself if you fully understand what you are doing. I would not recommend focusing on only one type of bet - each situation is unique in its own way.
— How many sports to choose for betting? The answer is simple and obvious - which ones you understand, bet on those. Sometimes it can be tempting, especially because of the posts on the forums about the super-profitability of a sport that is unknown to you, to bet on it. But this is a bet at random, which is unacceptable. Don't forget - these posts are usually from people who have studied the sport and are likely to understand it and can profit from it. So focus your attention on one or more disciplines and keep learning.
—But what about LIVE? Live is a very interesting, profitable way to increase the deposit, but at the same time it is the most risky and valid. Analyzing the match, you will be able to decide whether to play it in Live, place a bet in advance or skip it altogether.
— Alien predictions. There are plenty of free tipster sites on the internet that you can rely on, but you can't rely on them mindlessly. It is better to refrain from paid forecasts - they are difficult to recoup, because really good forecasts cost a lot.
— Coefficient monitoring. A very important factor, without it in our business simply nowhere. Most odds move in unison with events that can affect the outcome. A massive drop or rise in odds is an excellent indicator for a final decision.
— We see a promising match - we begin the analysis - the match "didn't like". Very good - just don't bet on it. If the match seemed “strange” to you, skip it, even if you spent time.
—Now, even with forecasting, you won’t earn anything on bets, but earlier…
Complete nonsense! This judgment is as delusional as "All the discoveries have already been made" and so on. As it used to be, and now sports betting is not the easiest, but not the most boring way to make money, no matter how many people are doing the same thing as you!
Analysis - Foundation
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1. Statistics. Strangely enough, the basis of all forecasts, even the bookmakers themselves when forming the starting odds, is statistics. Statistics are important, despite all the dissatisfied exclamations of its opponents. But many players go too far with its use. Remember the main thing - statistics is the basis of analysis, not all analysis. In addition, do not get too far away and climb too far. It is only important how the team played in the last 4-6 matches, and this is without taking into account many other factors that also need to be dealt with.
2. Factors affecting the alignment of forces. The psychological and physical condition of the players, injuries, tournament prospects and ambitions, the weather, referees, derbies and the integrity of the opponents - all this plays a very important role in forecasting. All principles and auxiliary services will be discussed further.
3. Chuyka.
What the hell are you asking? In fact, without intuition in our business, nowhere. But intuition is not a guessing game, intuition is an experience. With experience comes flair and you are more likely to change your mind, even if all other factors say otherwise. Watching match after match, you will notice such things as - the stability of any line of the team or individual players, the ability to turn the tide of the game and so on. Be sure - do it, this is the key to success.
Analysis - First Steps and Getting Started
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Before we dive deeper into analysis, let's look at the order in which to start making a prediction. I think it is not necessary to remind you that you need to approach the analysis in good health and good mood so that blues and depression do not ruin you. By the way, sports and physical activity are the best medicine for this.
In my opinion, you need to "dance" from the statistics. That is, decide on the current form of the teams, and then spud everything else. But as you already understood, the statistics in no way should give you the final reason to place a bet, rather, it is the first step. What statistics can give us - team scoring at home and away, team form and so on. All these are subjective factors, you cannot rely on them alone.
It is not necessary for the team that comes second in the championship to beat the tenth. And here such people enter the battle critical factors as:
1. Motivation. This is a fundamental factor in the mood of the team for the game. Most best rates for “motivational situations” it is “both teams to score” or totals (especially individual)
— Tournament tasks. It is not difficult to guess that a team fighting, for example, for the championship or European competitions (especially the Champions League, the Europa League is not listed in the TOP championships, so it should not be taken into account in many cases) is more motivated to win than the average team, for which it is not important , which place to take, twelfth or thirteenth. The same can be said about outsiders fighting for survival - especially if this is the last chance, such a team can fight with all their might and beat even the leader, especially the unmotivated one (who has already secured the championship). Doubly the game is more important with a team that is fighting for the same "piece of the pie". Also, do not forget that betting on a favorite who has already “decided everything”, especially at the end of the championship, can be dangerous.
— Compositions. The previous point smoothly turns into this one - the rotation of the lineups. With the exception of injured or suspended players, coaches often change squads based on current tasks - for example, there is a very important match in the Champions League ahead, and the coach will most likely give rest to his main performers, releasing for matches (especially not decisive ones) in understudies home league. You can take advantage of this.
— Premium and prize money. Sometimes you can hear that the club management has promised to reward players for winning a match. This fact, most likely, can serve as a good motivator for action.
—Derby and rehabilitation in front of the fans. Derby is separate topic that can turn everything upside down. Many teams have principal rivals, the victory over which may be more important psychologically than 2 wins in other matches. Derby is a battle for life and death (of course, not everyone, but a real football fan should know the hottest ones by heart). Totals and card bets are the bets that can be successful in such games.
2. Weather. Not as important as the previous ones, but still worth mentioning. Let's say a team plays in an unusual climate for itself - it plays in the snow and cold, while it's +20 at home. This stressful situation can negatively affect the players. Same way bad condition turf due to bad weather can prevent players from showing their best.
3. Tournament schedule and calendar. A team playing several difficult and intense games in a row, or just a lot of games in a short period of time, of course, can get tired. The fatigue of the players, especially if they do not have an equivalent replacement on the bench, can affect the team's performance in the following matches.
4. Mood within the team. The psychological state of the players is just as (and probably more) important than the physical. Quarrels between players, change of leadership or head coach, delayed salaries - all this should be paid attention to when forecasting, especially since there are a huge number of football news sites.
5. Your option!
Remember I talked about experience? So - it is very important, without it nowhere! Only in the sport that you know "from and to" can you achieve success. You will see for yourself what other factors are important when analyzing a particular sporting event!
Analysis - Auxiliary Services
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Statistics and Livescore
— http://en2.7m.cn/lbpk_live_en.aspx?view=all&line=no- my favorite statistics service. It's statistics, livescore, and odds monitoring in one. He is the best, no question. (second on the list).
— http://alexbetting.com/matches/statm/- statistics on previous matches in Russian
— http://www.wsn.com - good statistics for the upcoming matches in percentage display.
— http://www.bari91.com/soccer_clubs- beautiful statistics for clubs and teams
— http://www.soccerstats.com - team and league statistics
- http://int.soccerway.com/ - statistics on matches played (including squads and so on).
— http://www.statbunker.com - statistics with various filters
— http://scores2.com - live score with simultaneous display of odds changes in top books.
Kef monitoring
http://www.oddsoddsodds.com - German odds monitoring service, one of the best. Simple registration required (for full display).
http://www.puntersodds.com - odds monitoring in all possible sports, not just football.
http://www.hot-odds.com is another good monitoring service. Full functionality - after registration
http://txodds.com - a visual display of odds changes in different time periods. Most of the advanced functionality is on a paid basis.
Football .
http://worldreferee.com - statistics of football referees, useful when betting on cards
http://www.365tip.com - free sports predictions
http://www.betrush.com - free football predictions
http://www.come2bet.com - free football predictions
