11. Indicators of the natural movement of the population.
Population- a historically formed and renewing set of people living in a certain territory.
Population rate includes all persons of both sexes of any age and state of health, residing within the administrative boundaries of the state, regardless of their actual location. It includes all categories and groups of residents, regardless of the degree of economic activity and the ability to engage in any activity at all.
The most complete source of population information are census(every 10 years).
The number of permanent population is determined by the formula 
- number of post population 
- number of present population 
- the number of temporarily absent 
- the number of temporary residents
The current population is calculated as follows
The change in population due to births and deaths is called natural population movement.
Fertility rate (n) is the ratio of the number of live births per year to the average annual present population ( 
) per thousand people: 
.
Mortality rate (t) is the ratio of the number of deaths per year (M) to the average annual population ( 
):
.
Natural increase rate(Kest) is determined by the formula 
.
Vitality factor(Kg) is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths. It characterizes the excess of birth rate over mortality: how many times more people are born than die: 
.
12. Indicators of the mechanical (migration) movement of the population.
Under mechanical movement of the population refers to the change in its population due to migration. Distinguish between internal (change of permanent place of residence within the country), external (entry or exit from the country for permanent residence), seasonal (change in the number of actual population during certain periods of the year), pendulum migration (daily movement of people from their place of residence to the place of work or study and back).
To characterize the mechanical movement, absolute and relative indicators of migration are used.
Absolute indicators:
Relative indicators, characterizing the intensity of migration processes:
13. Essence and main category of labor resources. Indicators of employment and unemployment.
When assessing the situation in the labor market, the following categories of labor resources are distinguished:
1. economically active population;
A. employed in the economy;
B. unemployed.
economically inactive population;
Human Resources This is the population capable of working by age and state of health.
Economically active population (work force) - This is a part of the population of both sexes, providing their labor for the production of material values, goods and services. Economically inactive population - This is the population of working age that is not part of the labor force, that is, employed and unemployed. This population group includes the following categories:
pupils and students, listeners and cadets attending daytime educational institutions (including daytime postgraduate and doctoral studies);
non-working pensioners;
persons engaged in housekeeping, caring for children, sick relatives, etc.;
persons who have stopped looking for a job, having exhausted all the possibilities of obtaining it, who are able and ready to work;
other persons who do not need to work regardless of the source of their income, and other categories of citizens.
Employed in the economy (working)- These are persons aged 16 years and older, as well as persons of younger ages, K unemployed , according to the ILO definition, are persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, for whom, in the period under review, three of the criteria listed below were met simultaneously:
did not have a job (an income-generating occupation);
were looking for work (on their own or with the help of employment services);
were ready to start work immediately (within the next period of time).
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LECTURE 7 « BASICS OF POPULATION STATISTICS»
Plan:
Population as an object of statistical study. The main tasks of statistics on the naseleniya.
The study of the population, the main types of groupings.
The main indicators of the natural movement of the population.
The main indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
First you need to remember structure of statistical science. Modern statistics is a diversified social science. There are 3 levels:
1st level - general theory of statistics- methodological basis. The core of all industry statistics. Develops general principles and methods of statistical research of social phenomena.
At the 2nd level, 2 large generalizing branches are distinguished: economic and social statistics.
On the 3rd level are separate sections (industries) economic and social statistics.
Branches of economic statistics - statistics of industry, agriculture, construction, transport, communications, labor, natural resources, etc.
In addition, the statistics of large industries can be subdivided into smaller industry statistics. For example, engineering statistics
metallurgy industry statistics
chemistry, etc.
farming statistics
agricultural statistics livestock statistics
social statistics– forms a system of indicators to characterize the lifestyle of the population and various aspects of social relations. It includes:
population statistics
Politicians
cultures
health care
Enlightenment
First question. Population as an object of statistical study. The main tasks of population statistics.
Population statistics is a branch of social statistics. The population (especially its able-bodied part) is studied within the framework of economic statistics, since it is a direct participant in the production process and a consumer of its results. The population is the main productive force of society and its most valuable "capital".
Population statistics is the oldest branch of statistics, because population accounting was carried out in ancient times for military and economic purposes (military service, taxation, etc.). Certain regularities in the study of mass data were also revealed for the first time in the study of such phenomena as mortality and fertility. When we talked about trends and patterns, we recalled the English economist John Graunt, who, back in the 17th century, first established that more boys are born than girls (14/13) and that men then die more intensively than women, as a result, by the end of women's lives more than men. After 3 centuries, the revealed ratios did not undergo significant changes, as a result of which it was concluded that this is not just a temporary trend, but a demographic pattern.
So, object of study This branch of statistics is the population and the patterns of its development.
Population is a set of people living within a certain territory: part of the country, the whole country, a group of countries, the entire globe. Moreover, the population as an object of statistical research has 2 fundamental peculiarities: dynamism and heterogeneity of composition. Human society, due to fertility, mortality and migration, is constantly changing its size and structural proportions. On the other hand, the population is highly differentiated according to many characteristics - sex, age, nationalities, place of residence, etc. As a result, a heterogeneous and rapidly changing object is always quite complex for various accounting operations.
Population statistics include: units of observation:
Man (as an individual) - used most often;
household (for the first time in Russia, households were counted in 1994 during the micro-census of the population) – accepted in international practice.
The household- persons living together who have pooled their incomes and material assets (in whole or in part) and jointly carry out expenses for the consumption of goods and services. These persons may or may not be related by kinship or marriage. A household may consist of one person. Accounting for households in population censuses is accepted in most countries of the world and is in line with the existing recommendations of the UN and other international organizations.
During the All-Russian population census of 2002, the household was considered as the unit of observation, as is customary in international practice.
The object of statistical observation there can be very different aggregates: the population as a whole (permanent or present), individual groups of the population (working-age population, unemployed, men or women, etc.), born in a year, etc.
The main sources of population statistics are:
current accounting (in the registry office, passport and visa service of the Internal Affairs Directorate)
one-time observations in the form of complete or sample censuses.
Moreover, the primary sources of information about the population are censuses, the data of which are then adjusted for the number of births and deaths, those who left and those who arrived (according to current records).
Population censuses are carried out once a decade, as this is an expensive undertaking. There were 7 population censuses in the former USSR (in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989). The first population census in Russia took place in 1994. in the form of a micro-census, and the last one in 2002.
The census is being carried out forwarding method, which provides the most accurate statistical information, so the census program includes a wide range of questions.
Natural population movement.. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces, as well as changes in life expectancy. The natural movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators include: 1. number of births per year (N); 2. number of deaths (M);
3. absolute natural population growth, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths (N-M).
Absolute indicators The natural movement of the population does not characterize the intensity of its reproduction, and they cannot be used for a comparative analysis of the reproduction of the population in different territories. For this purpose, relative indicators of the natural movement of the population are used, which are expressed as coefficients called ppm (‰).
Relative vital rates are calculated as the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average annual population and multiplied by 1000. Relative indicators can be general and particular. To general indicators include the birth rate, death rate and vital movement (growth) of the population. Relative indicators of the vital movement of the population.
Statistics of the mechanical movement of the population (population migration).
In population statistics, mechanical movement refers to the movement of the population across the territory of the country. The mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators. The main absolute indicators of migration are:
1.
the number of arrivals in a given territory per year (P); 2
. the number of those who left the given territory per year (B);
3.
migration balance (migration gain), which is defined as the difference between arrivals and departures (ΔSmech = P-B); 4
. migration turnover, which is the sum of the number of arrivals and departures (MO = P + B).
The relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population include the coefficient of population growth and the coefficient of general population growth. 
Methods for calculating the coefficient of general population growth.
The total population changes through births and deaths, as well as through the mechanical movement of the population.
This is the relationship of the total absolute population growth, natural and mechanical population growth.
How the population growth rate is calculated depends on the available data.
The listed indicators of the mechanical movement of the population can be calculated both for the entire population as a whole and for various groups of the population (age, ethnic, etc.).
In international comparisons, the statistics of the mechanical movement of the population uses such terms as immigrant and emigrant, immigrant worker and emigrant worker.
For analytical purposes, to characterize migration flows and flows of migrant workers, the following indicators are calculated:
1. the share of indicators of international labor migration in the corresponding indicators of general migration of the population based on absolute data;
2. the share of emigrants and immigrants of working age in the total number of emigrants and immigrants in a given country.
(SES) 9. Employment and unemployment rate
Employment- the activity of the able-bodied population, associated with the production of material and spiritual goods in order to meet personal and social needs, which does not contradict the law and, as a rule, brings them earnings (labor income).
Quantitatively, employment is characterized by an indicator of the level of employment. It can be calculated in two ways:
1) The share of employed in the total population: Uz = Chz/Chn, where Chz is the number of employed, Chn is the total population. 2) The share of employed in the economically active population:
Uz=Chz/(Chz+Chb), where Chb is the number of unemployed.
In international statistics, the initial indicator for the analysis of employment is the level of economic activity of the population, i.e. share of the economically active population in the total population:
Uea \u003d (Chz + Bb) / Chn.
The practical need for population accounting necessitates the identification of species (structures) of employment– distribution of the active part of labor resources by spheres and sectors of the economy, by sex and age, and level of education.
Unemployment- lack of employment among a certain, greater or lesser part of the economically active population, able and willing to work.
The most important indicators of unemployment are:
1. The unemployment rate (UB) is the share of the number of unemployed (B) in the economically active population (EAP), expressed as a percentage.
The calculation of the unemployed according to the ILO method involves a periodic sample survey, a survey of the population by some state body, excluding employment services. In our country, this work is carried out by the State Committee on Statistics. Sample survey is carried out by 2 methods: periodically conducted surveys of families (USA, Japan, etc.);
counting the number of applications submitted to the state employment service for unemployment benefits (Great Britain, etc.).
In accordance with the methodology of the Federal Employment Service of Russia, the unemployment rate is determined by the following formula: 
Where Z is the number of employees.
The level of registered (registered) unemployment (Ubr) is determined by the formula: where is the number of unemployed registered by the employment authorities.
2. Duration of unemployment, i.e. the value that characterizes the average duration of the job search (in months) by persons who have the status of unemployed at the end of the period under review, as well as by those unemployed who were employed in this period.
Statistics study the population social category, i.e. the totality of people living in a certain area, and how economic category - participants in the production process and consumers of its results. Information about the population is necessary for state regulation, management and forecasting.
Tasks of the SES for today:
1) Determination of the population and its distribution throughout the country.
2) Characteristics of the composition of the population.
3) The study of the natural movement of the population.
4) Studies of the mechanical movement of the population.
5) Determination of the prospective number.
Sources of data from the population:
1) Census.
2) Current registration of birth rate, death rate, migration.
3) One-time accounting and selective observation.
The census provides the most accurate information. Census- a statistical survey specially organized at the state level, which allows you to obtain information directly from the population through a survey; carried out at a certain point in time in a short time; all data refer to a specific moment (critical moment of the census). In the USSR, censuses were conducted in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, and 1989. In 1994, a micro-census of the population of the Russian Federation was carried out, which covered 5% of the permanent population. The new census will be in 1999 from 16 to 17 January.
The unit of observation will not be an individual, but a household (as in world practice). The household includes people living together and leading a common household (not necessarily relatives); unlike a family, it can consist of one person who provides for himself financially; may include a family, a nanny, a housekeeper, as well as a population of people (eg in a nursing home).
In the intervals between censuses, current registration is carried out.
Population figures
Population- a group of people living in a given area.
The population is divided into:
· permanent (PN): persons permanently residing in a given territory, regardless of their location at the time of the census;
· cash on hand (HH): persons who are actually in the territory at the time of the census, regardless of their place of permanent residence.
In addition, temporary residents (RT) and temporarily absent (TO) are taken into account.
Data on the actual population is used in organizing the work of transport, trade, water supply, etc. Monthly data are used in the planning of housing construction, schools, hospitals, etc. There is a relationship between the listed indicators.
PN \u003d NN - VP + VO è NN \u003d PN + VP - VO
Population calculation finally each year following the census: S t +1 =S t +N t -M t +P t -B t , where:
S t+1 and S t are the population in the respective years;
N t is the number of births in year t;
M t is the number of deaths in year t;
P t is the number of arrivals;
B t is the number of dropouts.
The absolute population indicator S is a momentary indicator (as of a certain date), i.e. January 1, June 1, etc.
Total population change: D S= S t+1 - S t . For economic calculations, you need to know average population for a certain time.
Methods for calculating the average population.
1. If there is data at the beginning and end of the period, then the calculation by the arithmetic mean method is simple:
2.
If there is data on the population for several equally spaced dates, then the calculation by the method of average chronological unweighted for moment series: 
3. If the intervals between the dates are not equal, then the calculation by the weighted arithmetic mean method:
To characterize the change population in time are used:
1. population growth rate:
2. population growth rate:
Having determined the population size, the SES studies its composition using the method groupings which is carried out on:
· social composition,
· areas of activity and sectors of the economy,
· professions,
· semi,
· age,
· marital status,
· etc.
Indicators of the natural movement of the population.
The change in population due to births and deaths is called natural population movement. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators:
1) number of births – N;
2) the number of deaths - M;
3) natural increase - N -M = D S natural. ;
4) the number of marriages and divorces.
These indicators are interval, i.e. determined for the period.
To judge the frequency of certain demographic events, relative performance. They are expressed in ppm (0 / 00) and characterize the level of population per 1000 people.
General indicators of the natural movement of the population.
1. Total fertility rate. - number of births per year per 1000 average annual population.
2.
Crude death rate. 
- number of deaths per year per 1000 average annual population.
3.
coefficient of natural growth. 
or
K eats. natural \u003d K p -K cm.
4. The coefficient of vitality of the population (Pokrovsky coefficient) K W (Pokr) \u003d (N / M) * 1000 \u003d K p / K cm.
A feature of the general coefficients is that they are calculated per 1000 people of the entire population. In addition to the general ones, private coefficients are also used, cat. calculated per 1000 people. a certain age, gender, professional or other group.
5.
Age-specific mortality rate. 
, where:
X - age, profession, etc.
M x is the number of deaths at age x.
S x is the average population at age x.
6.
Child mortality rate under the age of 1 year. 
, where:
M 0 is the number of children who died before the age of 1 year.
N t is the number of births in a given year.
N t-1 is the number of births in the previous year.
Special coefficients are also calculated. The most widespread is the special fertility rate (fertility (fertility) rate): 
, where:
S f.15-49 - the average number of women in the fertile age from 15 to 49 years.
There is a relationship between the general and special fertility rates: 
, where:
d f.15-49 - the proportion of women aged 15-49 years.
.
There is a relationship between general and special coefficients - any general coefficient can be represented as the arithmetic average of private coefficients, weighted by the size of population groups or their share in the total population.
, where:
d x is the share of group x in R.
Thus, the overall coefficient depends on the private and population structure.
There are also standardized coefficients, cat. when making a comparison, the influence of the age structure is eliminated. Calculated by the formula of the arithmetic weighted average:
In this case, the options are partial coefficients, and the weights are indicators of the age structure, taken as a standard for comparison.
Indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
Mechanical change - a change in the population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:
· external;
· internal;
· seasonal;
· pendulum.
The absolute indicator of population movement is B.
The number of arrivals - P.
Absolute mechanical gain - P mech. =P-V.
The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative performance :
1)
arrival rate – 
;
2)
retirement rate – 
;
3)
mechanical gain coefficient – 
;
Population is a concept better known as migration. It is a process in which there is a change in the place of residence of social groups or individuals, expressed in their movement to another country, geographical area or region.
Mechanical population movement in some countries
The level of migration and its direction differ significantly in different states. The population of North American countries is characterized in other words, the number of people arriving here for long-term or permanent residence is greater than the number of people leaving. In other countries, for example, in Azerbaijan, the opposite ratio is observed. The mechanical movement of the population in Russia is characterized by the fact that 75% of the natural decline is compensated by migration. Russia in terms of its volume is in third place in the world, second only to the United States and Germany. About ¾ of migrants are Russian-speaking population from the CIS countries.
Migration in the broad and narrow sense
In a broad sense, it is considered as any movement of people. In the narrow sense, it refers to their crossing the borders of certain territories, in which there is a change of residence either for a long time or forever.
External and internal migration
Migration can be classified in a number of ways. For example, depending on the nature of the border crossing by the population, the following varieties of it are distinguished.
- Internal migration is the movement of people within one state between economic-geographical or administrative regions, settlements (moving from village to village, from city to city, from village to city, from city to village).
- External migration refers to crossing the borders of a country. It includes immigration and emigration.
Emigration and immigration
Let's talk about the difference between these two similar-sounding concepts. The word "emigration" comes from the Latin term meaning "I move", "I move out". Such a mechanical movement of the population is called moving (forced or voluntary, organized or gravity) to another state for temporary residence for a long period, or for permanent residence. In most cases, it is associated with a change of citizenship.
The word "immigration" also has a Latin origin and is translated as "I move in". Such a mechanical movement of the population is its entry into the country for temporary (long-term) or permanent residence, mainly with a change of citizenship.
Migration in demography is considered an integral part of another process, called From this position, it is often defined precisely as a mechanical movement of the population.
Quantitative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population
When studying migration, like any other phenomena related to demography, it is important to know what their quantitative characteristics are. The mechanical movement of the population is a phenomenon that, in relation to persons living in any territory (city, district, country, etc.), is divided into arrivals from outside and departures of persons outside it.
The balance of migration (net migration, or net migration) is the difference between the number of arrivals and departures for a given period of time. There is another important indicator. This is the amount of migration. It is defined as the sum of arrivals and departures. The volume of migration is also called gross migration, or gross migration.
We can express the number of arrivals and departures in absolute numbers, allowing us to visualize what the overall mechanical movement of the population is. This representation, however, does not reveal the intensity of the process of interest to us. After all, there is a relationship between the total population and the number of departures and arrivals, which also needs to be taken into account. Therefore, the mechanical movement of the population is characterized by a number of relative indicators. Let's talk about the most important of them.
Relative indicators
The intensity of migration is estimated in the form of which are called intensity coefficients. Let's list the main ones.
- The arrival rate (denoted as Kp) is the ratio of the number of arrivals to the population of a particular territory.
- Departure rate (Kv) - the ratio of the number of departed to the population of the territory.
- Relative balance of migration (Кс) - the ratio of the difference between the number of arrivals and departures in the population.
- The general coefficient of mobility (Cr) is the ratio of the sum of departures and arrivals, that is, all migration movements, to the number of inhabitants of a particular territory.
These are the main indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
Components of a migration
Often, when analyzing migration, it is necessary to break it down into separate components. We briefly describe the most important of them. Migration flows are usually distinguished. These are groups of migrants who have common territories of arrival or departure. One more component can be named, which is often distinguished by researchers. We are talking about migration cohorts, which are a collection of people who are united by a common migration period.
The composition of the persons who are included in the mechanical movement of the population is also something that is of great importance. These persons are characterized by social affiliation, age and gender, nationality, etc. After all, migration mobility among population groups is heterogeneous. The composition of migrants leads to significant changes in the structure of the population in areas of arrival and departure.
Relationship between demographics and migration
The mechanical movement of the population is associated with specific events in a person's life. For example, with the completion or start of labor activity, graduation from an educational institution, military service, etc. Marriage and termination, the birth of children and other events related to the demographic cycle are an important part of every person's life. Therefore, parameters related to demography (marital status, age of children and their number, etc.) have a significant impact on the processes associated with migration. They are one of the important criteria by which groups of the population are distinguished in the study of its mechanical movement.
As mentioned above, different groups are characterized by different mobility. Migration, which is studied in terms of indicators of its intensity within certain categories of the population, is called differential. Her study is important for understanding the differences that mark the mechanical movement of the population of different regions, age, ethnic, socio-professional and other groups. When studying this type of migration, first of all, attention is paid to the differences that exist in age groups. After all, these associations differ significantly in terms of the level of mechanical movement of the population.
Linking migration to gender
The indicators of migratory mobility also differ depending on gender. Among migrants in many states, the predominance of men is revealed. However, this rule is not universal. In some countries, in certain periods, there was an increased proportion of women in migration flows. For example, in Europe in the past, it was the fair sex that dominated the dropouts. Based on this, E. Ravenstein, an English researcher of the 19th century, created the empirical laws of migration. One of them said that women are generally more likely to migrate than men.
Number of children and marital status
The mobility of the population also depends on the number of children in the family and the marital status. However, these dependences are not as one-sided as in the case of the relationship between the intensity of the process of interest to us and age. Not only the number of children can affect migration mobility. In turn, their number can be determined by the degree of mobility. For example, if a family moves frequently, it may put off having children. Therefore, their number is decreasing.
Reproduction intensity
The migration mobility of the population has an impact on the intensity of the flow, and this applies to the reproduction of both closed and open populations. In the latter case, migrations directly change its composition and abundance. Shifts in the age and sex structure are of particular importance. If men predominate among migrants, and if among them there is a high proportion of representatives of the younger groups of people of working age (16-30 years), there is a feminization of the inhabitants of this territory. In addition, this leads to his aging in the areas of departure and to a high number of young men in the places of resettlement.
Mechanical and natural population movement
In conclusion, I would like to note the difference between two important concepts. Mechanical and are not the same thing. Natural movement is reproduction. We briefly talked about its relationship with migration in the article. It is characterized by the level of natural increase, mortality, birth rate, life expectancy of the population. Indicators of natural increase, mortality and birth rate are usually quantitatively expressed in ppm per thousand inhabitants.
