Among the various statistics that bookmakers accept bets on in their football lines, one can single out yellow cards. Indeed, in the vast majority of matches, rough fouls, disruptions of attacks, simulations, etc. are committed, for which the referees issue warnings to the players and present yellow cards. Some bettors even specialize in the direction of yellow cards, they bet only on this indicator. Well, let's deal with this specific category of football betting. Let's find out how realistic it is to predict the number of yellow cards and which ones yellow card betting better to do.
So, let's take an example of a bookmaker's offer for yellow cards. What rates do we see here. Yellow card wins, handicap wins, overall yellow card totals (over/under), individual totals.
Many bookmakers accept bets that a particular player will receive a yellow card. A very specific market. But, it cannot be said that it is completely hopeless.
There may also be a total of yellow cards by halves, bets on the even / odd total of yellow cards, bets on which team will receive a yellow card first, receiving cards by time intervals. In general, these are all adventurous and frankly crazy bets, due to which the bookmaker is only trying to disperse the player’s attention, confuse, awaken excitement in him and devastate his gaming account…
We will consider more real, in terms of forecasting, bets on yellow cards.
Yellow Card Winning Betting
So, the bookmaker accepts bets on which team will collect more yellow cards. We do not consider a draw on cards at all, because predicting this is also impossible, like equality, which we talked about in one of the recent articles.
So, how to predict which team will “win”, so to speak, get more yellow cards. I will win in quotation marks, because achievement is dubious.
The number of yellow cards directly depends on the number of fouls, violations of the rules. A large number of fouls and their increase in rudeness and rigidity leads to the fact that the arbitrator begins to issue “mustard plasters”.
If one team attacks more with fast technical players, then their opponents who are slower and more athletic will inevitably foul more and collect more yellow cards. Also, in every championship and tournament there are clubs, teams that are more or less disposed to rough play, fouls and, accordingly, collecting yellow cards. In the composition of such teams there are especially zealous players in this indicator. By studying statistics and comparing opponents in a particular match, it is very often possible to correctly predict the winner by yellow cards.
Naturally, if such a pre-match lineup of fouls and yellow cards is obvious, then the odds for winning on the received “yolks” will not be high. Analytical cents of bookmakers are on the alert and work on high level. Find an advantage over the line, the so-called. a value bet is not so easy. So, if the coefficient just for winning on cards is not high enough, then you can increase it by taking a victory with a minus one. It is clear that as the coefficient increases, the risk also increases. But, if there is confidence that the team will significantly outperform its more technical opponents in terms of the number of warnings, you can take it with a head start.
Bets on yellow card totals
Another interesting option betting on football statistics is the total of yellow cards. This is a bet that the total number of warnings received by both teams will be over or under a certain total.
When predicting the total of yellow cards, one should calculate the mutual intransigence of the teams, the mood for the fight, and rough. Teams must both be able to attack quickly and have a faultless defense that commits a lot of fouls to stop such fast attacks.
Naturally, we should evaluate the match in which we want to play the total number of yellow cards more, for motivation. If it is not obvious and low, then the players have no reason to foul rudely and often, “tear off each other's legs”, as they say. In such matches, on the contrary, it is worth considering a bet on the total on yellow cards - less.
Here we should highlight such matches as the derby, when teams from the same region meet with warring fan groups. Such matches, even in the absence of tournament motivation, very often abound with wrestling, rough fouls and yellow cards.
In addition to the total total, there are bets on the individual total of teams on yellow cards. In fact, we evaluate the prospects of a particular team for receiving (or, conversely, not receiving) a certain number of warnings. If the team plays rough, and the opponent is fast and technical, then it is worth playing the total more. If, however, the team plays cleanly and the extreme intensity of passions is not expected, then you can play an individual total of cards - less.
Of course, when predicting the totals of yellow cards, it is necessary to pull up and analyze the statistics for this indicator. Moreover, it is necessary to look not only at the performance of the teams, but also at the third party, namely, the judges.
It is well known that some judges are more generous with cards, while others are less so. So, if everything converges in one match, and the alleged struggle, rudeness, disruption of attacks and a harsh referee, then the bet on the total or individual total of yellow cards is more than justified.
The judge can be very an important factor. Even with a very rough game, some "liberal" referees are not very active in issuing warnings. So, sometimes you can try to flirt with good odds on TM on yellow cards, taking the referee's statistics as the main thing.
Before betting on cards in football, read the rules of a particular bookmaker about this. In this matter, there are discrepancies, up to absolutely crazy options. For example, many offices, in the event of a player being sent off for two yellow cards, count only one.
Bets on a yellow card for a specific player
How to bet on getting a yellow card by a specific player? There must be four factors at once. Firstly, the opposing team must strive and be able to attack and be motivated to do so. Secondly, we consider rude players, record holders for yellow cards over a long distance. As a rule, these are defensive midfielders, central or extreme defenders. Thirdly, it is necessary to take into account the position of this player. And if, based on the formation scheme, he will play against a strong, fast and skillful opponent player, then there is a very high probability of a card. Fourth, you need to take into account the statistics of the judge. It is necessary that he not be stingy with cards.
If you managed to identify the player and all four factors agreed, then you can bet on such an event.
conclusions. With a competent approach, a deep understanding of the way teams play, the correct processing of team statistics, referees and specific players, you can successfully identify the most suitable and predictable matches in terms of yellow cards and place profitable bets on them.
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On the eve of the resumption of games in the Russian Premier League, I propose to get acquainted with the statistical indicators of Russian referees and clubs.
According to the results of 20 rounds at RFPL games, 19 referees worked as the chief referee. Most of all in the federation, they trusted Roman Galimov, who served 13 matches. 12 games on account of Vladimir Moskalev and Sergey Lapochkin. Premier League referees on average showed players 3.68 yellow and 0.11 red cards. At the same time, the hosts received 1.68 FC, and the guests 2 FC per fight.
Top 3 yellow card judges:
- Igor Fedotov - 6 games, 30 LCD (5.0 LCD on average)
- Alexei Matyunin - 5 games, 22 LCDs (4.4 LCDs on average)
- Artyom Chistyakov - 6 games, 26 LCDs (4.3 LCDs on average)
Two more referees show the players a little over 4.0 LCD. These are Mikhail Vilkov (10 games) and Evgeny Turbin (8 games). It is worth noting Sergey Kulikov, who showed 15 JC in three games, however, with such a number of matches, one should not yet conclude that the referee is a fan of mustard plasters. The rest of the referees show less than 4.0 HC per match. At the same time, Sergey Lapochkin has the lowest indicator in the championship, who warned the players only 30 times in 12 games, which corresponds to 2.5 FC per match.
Top 3 Red Card Judges
Three referees stood out here, who removed the players from the field 2 times. Among them are Mikhail Vilkov (remember the 90th minute of the August game Zenit - Spartak?), Sergey Ivanov (matches Amkar - CSKA and Arsenal - Krasnodar) and Alexei Yeskov (Spartak - Lokomotiv and Anzhi - SKA-Energia).
Among the referees who have more than 10 games in the season behind them, in terms of red cards, or rather their absence, we can single out the same Roman Galimov, who, after refereeing the most matches of the RFPL 2017/2018, did not dare to remove anyone from the field.
In order to make the right decision when betting on cards in the games of the Russian Premier League, it is necessary to take into account the statistical indicators of the clubs themselves.
RFPL leaders by yellow cards (average per match):
- Akhmat - 2.4 LCD
- Amkar - 2.25 LCD
- Ufa - 2.15 LCD
The most disciplined RFPL clubs by yellow cards:
- Dynamo Moscow - 1.35 LCD
- FC Krasnodar - 1.4 LCD
- Anzhi, Lokomotiv - 1.45 LCD
As for red cards, only two clubs have three removals in 20 games - Spartak Moscow and Tosno. The players of Akhmat, CSKA and Rubin left the field ahead of schedule twice. The referees have never removed players from five teams at once from the green lawn - Arsenal, Rostov, FC Ufa, Lokomotiv and Dynamo Moscow.
What to bet on Friday?
A bonus to the material is a forecast for the match that will open the spring part of the Premier League. Let me remind you that tomorrow Rubin will be visiting Kaspiysk, where he will meet at the Anji Arena with the local Anji.
The match between Anzhi and Rubin is entrusted to judge the Muscovite Alexei Yeskov, who, despite being in the top 3 judges more than all the players who sent off the field this season, does not particularly like to give out warnings. Yeskov gave an average of 3.1 JK for 9 matches.
As noted earlier, Anzhi is a disciplined team (1.45 JK), but Kazan is a rougher team, because its players on average receive almost two yellow cards from the referee. As a result, we get less than 3.5 warnings for two. Considering that Eskov gives the players a little more than three mustard plasters, it can be assumed that there should definitely not be 5 LCDs in the match.
This material has been around for a long time.
Over the course of many seasons of playing fantasy football in the chats of tournaments or in the comments under various posts, regulatory issues on disqualifications were very often raised.
Why is it that in the Championship or the Premier League someone misses a game for 5 f.c., while someone continues to play? What are the principles of disqualification in France? In which countries summed up for the championship and the cup? You will receive answers to these and other questions below. Detailed items I, of course, will not give regulations. I will try to bring everything in an easy, accessible form, which is necessary for the needs of fantasy.
RFPL
4 well.
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)
10 j.c.- the second Sunday of April;
15 j.c.- until the end of the season.
examples:
Suppose some player has accumulated 4 f.c. If he gets 5 j.c., he misses the next game. If the same player played the round without any warnings, and in the next round, taking place on January 1 or 2, received his total 5 OK, then he will no longer miss the next nearest game, but will wait for the accumulation of 10 OK . until the second Sunday in April.
Important to remember!
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)
Serie A
5 j.c. 4 well., then after 3 zh.k. and so on;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches.
Cards in the championship and the cup are considered separately for these tournaments, they are not summed up.
La Liga
5 j.c.- skipping the next match in the championship;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches;
Cards in the championship and the cup are considered separately for these tournaments, they are not summed up.
Bundesliga
5 j.c.- skipping the next match in the championship;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches;
Cards in the championship and the cup are considered separately for these tournaments, they are not summed up.
Ligue 1 France
France has specific disqualification regulations. Absolutely, I can't tell you. I will give only a few of my observations, as well as the statements of some experienced fantasists I know.
The main feature is that the decision on the discs is taken by the French football committee. A player can get 3-4 cards, play the next match, and only then miss the game. I also heard the opinion, and sometimes I myself observed such that if a player receives 3 f.c. in a segment of 10 matches, then he misses the game. But it is not entirely clear whether the next one or again will wait for the decision of the committee.
Eredivisie
5 j.c.- skipping the next match in the championship;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches;
Cards in the championship and the cup are considered separately for these tournaments, they are not summed up.
Liga NOS Portugal
Disqualification comes after receiving 5 j.c., the next one comes after 4 well.;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches;
Cards in the championship and the cup are considered separately for these tournaments, they are not summed up.
English Championship
Disqualification comes after the accumulation in the season of 5, 10 and 15 warnings. There are time limits for receiving disciplinary sanctions as a result of accumulated warnings.
10 j.c.- the second Sunday of March;
15 j.c.- until the end of the season.
In order to make it easier to understand, I will give examples:
Suppose some player has accumulated 4 f.c. If he gets 5 j.c., he misses the next game. If the same player played the round without any warnings, and in the next round, which takes place on December 1 or 2, received his total 5 OK, then he will no longer miss the next nearest game, but will wait for the accumulation of 10 OK . before the second Sunday in March.
Important to remember! The cards in the championship and cups are summed up. A player who receives a disqualification misses the next game in any of the tournaments.
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches.
2 k.k., 3 k.k. in the season - respectively, skipping 2 and 3 matches.
In England, a review of decisions on warnings is possible. They can either remove the disk or, conversely, increase the ban.
Superliga Turkey
4 well.- skipping the next match in the championship;
k.k. (2 j.c. in a match)- skipping the next match in the championship. For gross violations, additional sanctions are possible in the form of missing several matches;
Important to remember! The cards in the championship and the cup are summed up. A player who receives a disqualification misses the next game in any of the tournaments.
Eurocups (UCL + UEL)
The player who removed from the field, automatically receives suspension for the next match in club competitions under the auspices of UEFA. The UEFA Control and Disciplinary Body may increase this penalty.
With regard to disqualifications for yellow cards, then the player misses the next match in the tournament, 3 warnings in three different matches, as well as after each next odd warning(fifth, seventh, ninth, etc.).
Single warnings and suspensions always carry over either to the next stage of the competition or to another UEFA club competition in the same season.
As an exception all yellow cards or impending suspensions due to overbookings are canceled at the end of the playoff round (note: qualifiers). In the group stage, they are no longer taken into account. Yellow cards or impending suspensions due to overbookings in European competition are canceled at the end of the season.
yellow cards received since the start of the group stage, burned out after the quarter-finals, i.e. not carried over to the semi-finals.
Bookmakers form bets on different episodes. In addition to the classics (to win), bets on corner and yellow cards (LC) are also popular. Not a single match in football goes without violations, but not every foul is seriously punished. What is worth knowing in order to maximize the chance to hit the jackpot?
It all starts with a proper assessment of the available data. Below are some observations to help guide you:
- Defenders foul much more often than attackers.
- There are always a couple of unseasoned players who earn warnings with enviable regularity.
- State standings affects the gameplay. For example, outsiders due to the threat of relegation from major league and pressure from coaches and fans often act very aggressively and constantly ignore the rules.
It is also advised to study all the events and understand which one is most suitable for you.
Basic bets on yellow cards
Most bookmaker customers like to bet on LCD, although this requires a diligent statistical review of the predicted event. The players compare a bunch of information. Only with an adequate analysis of the situation can you claim a win.
Exodus
It implies predicting the initial number of mustard plasters shown during the match. Their number is determined by many factors, which are discussed below.
Participants in tournaments have an unequal degree of preparedness. The levels of tactical and technical equipment differ. It is better for beginners to concentrate on matches in which these standards vary greatly. Usually in such fights there are standard situations for mustard plasters. Poorly trained team often neglects the rules. Lack of skill guarantees an abundance of fouls. Repeated and frankly gross violations are invariably punished. Moreover, in the composition there are often owners of several LCDs per season at once.
Coefficients can be specially reduced. This happens if the statistics point to the predicted outcome. In this case, you can bet a small amount, with a negative handicap.
Total
TB or TM are also very popular among visitors to betting sites. With this type of forecast, the number of LCDs per meeting is calculated. You can separately bet on the opponents' totals and on each half.
Making a forecast, you need to carefully review the previous meetings. If there is no time, then you can do summaries. It is necessary to fully assess the situation, the presence of already existing "mustard plasters", the psychology of the team. The final score has no practical value? This means that there will be relatively few violations. In other scenarios, one can witness very violent and swift attacks. In this case, a lot of struggle is expected and, as a result, more LCDs.
Derbies are usually fought between irreconcilable clubs. Here the offenders are much higher. But keep in mind that here the odds for TB are low, and the risk for TM is high.
A separate total is also offered. Here we consider the probability of obtaining a certain number of LCDs by the team. If one of the opponents is obviously not in the best shape, then it is better to bet on TB. If there is no tournament component and no fight is foreseen, it is recommended to provide for TM.
We need to explore all the significant details. The judiciary cannot be discounted either.
Who will be shown first
It is necessary to predict which representative of which team will be awarded the LCD first. For such events, the coefficients practically do not change. This is due to the fact that getting the first "yellow card" is difficult to predict.
One can only assume that the weaker opponent will get the LCD first. An experienced opponent will continuously attack. With inept defense, the possibility of punishment increases significantly.
Players
Particularly tough, as a rule, at the end of the season they have a solid supply of warnings. If they meet strong opponents, then this factor can come into play. The odds for this episode are traditionally high. This is due to the fact that in such fights great importance acquires an emotional component. Can not withstand the nerves of both actively defending defenders and attackers. Here it will be appropriate to take into account the conditions of the opposing ones. Is the defender noticeably inferior to the attacker? In all likelihood, he will earn LCD. In principled games, the role of the arbiter also increases significantly.
Warning time
This bet is for a period of, say, the last 15 minutes. If during this period one of the players receives an LCD, then the player will win. It is recommended to bet on the ending. It is during this interval that a surge of violations is observed.
Other types
- Odd/even yellow card bets are very difficult to calculate. 50/50 chance.
- By the times. You have to guess whether more LCD will be shown in the first or second half.
- Who will earn the next LCD. It should be determined who will receive the LCD in the near future (only in live mode).
- Who will receive the first / last LCD.
- Time of the first/last LCD.
- How many LCDs in a row will one of the teams earn.
- Pre-match forecast.
Features of betting on yellow cards in football
What to focus on?
Judges
Newbies are often exposed to information that pertains exclusively to opposing clubs. But decisions on the field are made by the referee, not by the players. If he intends to show a lot of LCD, then this will happen even with a calm game. For this reason, it is necessary to make a forecast from a study of the statistics of the judiciary.
Compound
One way or another, specific players receive LCDs. When deciding where to bet on yellow cards, analyze by player. It is recommended to view replays of meetings or detailed reviews. At the same time, it is desirable to notice the style of the players. All tournaments have their own “bone breakers”. They receive LC almost every time they enter the field. If they're starting, pick TB. If absent, then TM is better.
Football clubs
It is not a fact that a weak team will have more LCDs. There are times when big-name clubs face strong resistance and earn a lot of JC. This happens due to emotional breakdowns. Participants are trying with all their might to be at the gate and score a goal. At the same time, they forget about the rules and act carelessly.
Previous games
Find out the number of LCDs shown by the referee in past matches. Is their number higher than the average judge? So, for subsequent games, you can choose TM. Otherwise, you need to rely on TB.
Conclusion
Does the yellow card betting strategy pay off? Quite if a person analyzes well. You need to choose one of the events presented and consider any factors that affect the outcome in one way or another. A positive result depends on many factors. It is necessary to carefully monitor the statistics of matches, as well as the capabilities and characters of the players. With a competent comparison of factual knowledge and intuition, you can count on victory.
Many may have noticed that profitable handicappers are increasingly resorting to betting on unpopular events in the line. The classic line implies the conclusion of transactions for the victory of one of the teams, or for a draw in the match. However, modern bookmakers offer a whole variety: fouls and gross violations. Gross violations are punished in football with a yellow card. If the same player twice behaved unsportsmanlike, the chief referee of the meeting removes him from the field. Let's talk about which yellow card betting strategy is by far the most profitable and attractive for players.
Yellow card betting strategy: what is important to consider?
I note right away that everything said in this article is not a guarantee of a permanent win. Not win-win strategy betting on yellow cards, totals or Asian odds. The task of a privateer is to be in the black at a distance. We talked about this in detail in the article,. Now let's get to the point. Yellow card, or "yellow card" - a warning to the football player of the team by the chief referee for gross violation of the rules or unsportsmanlike behavior. Fans of watching football matches, I think, everything is clear with this definition. But it is important to understand the difference, fouls and yellow card warnings are different things. By the way, for total fouls in football match you can also bet on the victory of one of the teams on fouls or a handicap.
To successfully place bets on LCD, it is important to consider the following:
- The reputation of the chief arbiter of the meeting (loyal or categorical)
- Behavior of key players on the pitch (aggressive or reserved)
- Style of play of specific teams
- The importance of the tournament and a particular match in general
This is the list of criteria that to a large extent affects the number of mustard plasters shown by the referee of the match to the players. It is important to carefully analyze the pre-match alignment, use the information available on the Internet regarding the statistics of referees, players and football teams. Let's dwell on each of the above points so that the strategy of betting on yellow cards justifies itself and gives desired result.
Head referee statistics
In the article, we provided useful resources, greatly simplifying the life of the capper. There was a link to the portal with the statistics of the main referees of the leading football championships in Europe. Next, we will focus on the statistics given there. Consider the job of officiating in the English Premier League. Although they often come under criticism from football experts and fans, they are an example for many European championships.
The entire list can be conditionally divided into three large segments: categorical judges, restrained and loyal. For 90%, the number of yellow cards shown in a particular football match depends on the person with the whistle. It is important to understand and take this into account, to devote most of the analysis time to getting acquainted with the nature of refereeing. As we can see from the statistics current season The Premier League, Mike Dean, Atkinson, Moss and Oliver are the guys who don't put a finger in their mouth. For any conversations with them, you can easily get the LCD, and for a gross violation of the rules, a red light often lights up in front of the players. In matches with the participation of these referees, it is profitable to bet on TB ZhK. That is, bets on yellow cards predetermine the conclusion of transactions on the character and behavior of a single chief arbiter, and teams and specific players are taken into account last.
Read also Live corridor betting strategy: theory and practice
But that's not all. We open the detailed statistics of the referee on the game with which we want to bet. As we can see from Mike Dean's statistics, he can judge in different ways, either not a single JC for a match, or ten at once. This is important to consider and track before a deal. In most cases, bookmakers offer a line on LCD 3.5, 4.5 cards. For example, we know that a conditional match between Swansea and Crystal Palace will be handled by Mike Dean, the bookmakers have set a total of 3.5, and a coefficient of 2 or more is good bet. From Dean's personal indicators, we can see that he cannot be white and fluffy for more than two matches in a row during the entire season.
Analysis of football players
This is a less significant, but also an important criterion that is important to consider for successful game according to the strategy of betting on yellow cards. In almost every division, you can find a dozen "bone-breakers" who do not spare either themselves or other players. We all remember guys like Andoni Goikachea, who broke Diego Maradona's ankle, Stuart Pierce, Giuseppe Bergomi, Batista, Gattuso, Materazzi. Coincidence or not, but most of of these, she played in the Italian Serie A. Andoni Goykachaea is best known for his performance for the Spanish Athletic Bilbao, in which he was nicknamed the "butcher". The ball was the least of his worries.
It is quite logical that when there are several “bone-breakers” on the field at once, the chance for TB cards increases significantly, and vice versa, if there are none at all, TM looks more logical.
If you do not know the modern "watchdogs", open the statistics of the players, which are most often given on the official website of the league. For example, for nuclear submarines, finding such information is not great work. In some unpopular league, there may be problems with this.
One thing can be said, the temperament of some football championships attracts TB - the Balkans are masters of football provocations. And in the championships of many Arab countries used to decide the outcome of matches through brute force. True, and the judges there are predisposed to this.
Style of play of specific teams
Gradually, from the most significant factors, we move on to the less significant ones. The yellow card betting strategy does not oblige complex analysis specific teams, but if you find a team that uses brute force to set up a coach, this must be used. There is no specific correlation, for example, the better a team plays, the more cautious it is in terms of breaking the rules. Like not many weak teams prefer to play rough against a strong opponent. But in the lower divisions of England there are teams whose game is built on martial arts and brute force. But, there and the judges allow you to play like that.
