And all basketball in general. Today I propose to determine whether there really is a working live basketball betting strategy?
I am rather skeptical about various game strategies, since there are no 100% tactics that allow you to win without risk and without much difficulty. But there are some justifying approaches and concepts of the game. Further, we will talk about this exactly, what you should pay attention to during live basketball matches.
A working strategy for live basketball betting
The most common strategy for betting on live basketball is the strategy of playing on totals in quarters. Yes, there is a certain amount of truth in this, that it is rare to see a game when all four quarters in a match end with a total over or under. But sometimes these matches still take place. Some cappers offer this concept of the game to be combined with catch-up, which, in my opinion, promises a failure at a distance. If a capper stumbles upon a game where all four quarters will grind the ring, then his bank will lose a lot of its weight.
If you still decide to bet on the total in quarters, then you must first of all consider the following:
- Team uniform
- The shape of the leaders
- Bench scoring statistics
Basketball is an intense sport where there are substitutions every few minutes. All teams from the start come out in their most optimal lineups, which means that if all the leaders are healthy and at the start, then it is best to take total more points for the first quarter. If the bet plays, then for the second quarter we look at the total points less, since in most cases most time of the second quarter, the leaders of each team will rest.
But, it is necessary to take into account the depth of the bench, because there are such teams in the NBA in particular, where the benches are incredibly powerful and score no less points than the main starting ones. In less popular championships, where the choice of teams of individual performers is not so rich, they can, with a more or less equal game, play the entire first half with one squad. Most recently, I watched such a match in the Argentine Basketball Championship. The first half was thrown well, but in the second half there were frequent substitutions and the total fell.
Read also Live volleyball betting strategy: how and what to bet on?
Let's summarize what you need to consider if you bet on the total over/under points in quarters according to the strategy of betting on basketball in live:
- Scoring statistics of the main players
- Bench scoring statistics
- Team uniform in general
It is quite obvious that if a team plays the first half of the game with one line-up, then there will be substitutions in the second half, so in the second half it is worth taking ITM.
Basketball live betting strategy for total total
However, I prefer a completely different strategy. It consists in the following:
- The first half of the meeting is viewed (2 quarters)
- The initial total is compared with the current one after two quarters
- If the total has increased by 7-10%, then the total number of points is taken less, if the total has fallen by 7-10%, then the total number of points is higher (total total of the match)
Let me give you a small example. Yesterday there was a basketball match in Argentina. Initially, the total before the game was set at 162.5. But the players did not fly at all. Yes, it happens that you expect the total of the match more, but all the main basketball players seem to be good, but they go out and cannot score. The first three quarters went on the TM, and here we see exactly what will happen to the bank if we catch the first three quarters on the TM, and even catch up. Therefore, I do not recommend this strategy.
Basketball, along with hockey, belongs to the category of the most unpredictable sports games. Perhaps this is what he attracts viewers around the world. But just watching the game and enjoying it is one thing. To guess the outcome of the match, you need a certain system. In this article, we will look at the most popular and effective strategies basketball betting. So let's get started.
Total strategy in basketball
Is the most popular. In the painting of the match of any office there are at least three different totals. That is, players can bet “under” and “over” on several different outcomes. For example, that both teams will score from 170 to 190 points in a match. In addition, totals are accepted for fouls in quarters, free throws, three-pointers, etc. In the largest offices, there is even a “total market” for basketball players. That is, you can bet on three-pointers, fouls and free throws of each of the members of both teams.
Total calculation
For the calculation, you need to analyze the five previous games of the teams in question. No less important are the statistics of personal meetings.
1. To begin with, we calculate the amount of points that each team received in the last 5 games. The result is divided by five. As a result, we get the arithmetic mean.
2. Now that we have this indicator, we can calculate further. We add three points to the sum of the points of the home team, as well as one point for each game won from the last five. One and a half points are deducted for a loss. We do the same with the visiting team. The only thing is that you don't need to add three points at the beginning.
3. The next step is the analysis of personal meetings. Again, you need to calculate the arithmetic mean for each team. Then they are added to the results obtained in paragraph number 1, and divided by two. The resulting number will be the most likely total of the match. Comparing it with the line of bookmakers, we can draw certain conclusions. If the amount you received is less than the total in the line of the office, then you need to choose the total less. And vice versa.
Basketball is not limited to just one total. There are other strategies as well. Move on.
Oscar Grind Strategy
This is practically the only strategy that has a specific goal, namely, to increase the bankroll by one unit. This unit is the rate itself. Everything is simple. You don't even need any basketball betting software.
For example, your bank - 100 rubles. You bet 10 rubles. The goal is to increase assets by these 10 rubles. That is, you need to increase the bank to 110 rubles. If the bet does not pass, then its size increases to 20 rubles. If passed, the goal is reached. This strategy is also suitable for playing betting basketball. But common sense is required for its successful application. Bet with minimal risk and maximum odds.
Quarter Betting (Basketball)
This can be both the indicators of individual teams, and the total value. Players are offered to bet on which quarter the given indicator will be higher or which value will be the highest in the entire match. In fact, the outcome of the quarter is very difficult to predict. Therefore, this strategy is mostly based on intuition and superficial analysis of the teams' previous games.
Corridor
All existing strategies for betting on basketball cannot be compared with the corridor in terms of profitability. This is the most profitable tactic. The middle is the difference between opposing bets on a particular event. For example, two teams are playing and they have the following bets:
- F2 (0).
- F1 (-5.5).
- TM 166.
- TB 160.
As you can see, there is a difference of exactly six points between TM and TB. This is the corridor. If both teams can earn between 161 and 165 points together, then both bets will pass. If the number of points scored is less than 161, only TM will pass. If more, then TV.
The same principle applies to forms. Here the corridor is a difference of 7 points. Both bets will stand if the first team beats the second by 6 points (or more).
There are corridors for a handicap in different offices, since each of them has its own opinion regarding the game of the teams. But the corridors for the total exist only at one bookmaker.
time match
As mentioned above, no more profitable strategy basketball betting than a lineout. But if you master well such tactics as a time match, then the winnings can even exceed the income from the game along the "corridors". The essence of a time match is that the player bets on the outcome of the entire event or its first half. For example, team 1 and team 2 play football. You think that the first team will win in the first half, but the second team will win in the end. You are betting on it. And you can choose outcomes for two teams at once.
No basketball betting strategy gives such high odds as a half-match. Despite the clear underdog or favorite, the odds rarely drop below two. Therefore, you can earn decent money, even betting in two halves of the meeting on one winning team.
Live betting
IN Lately betting on basketball in LIVE mode is gaining momentum significantly. In this case, there are several strategies, but we will talk about the most popular. These are half-time bets when the bookmakers are preparing a new line for the 2nd half of the game. And they have very little time for this.
How can you bet like this? Everything is simple. You don't even need any basketball betting software. They can be done directly from the site of the bookmaker itself by selecting the appropriate menu item. So, what is the essence of the strategy itself?
The line in this type of betting is available to the player only for a few minutes, before changing the odds. As a result, he has very little time for analysis. But the bookmaker is in a similar position. Analysts need to quickly make adjustments based on the results of the first half of the game. And here they can make a mistake by giving an overestimated coefficient on the event.
Consider Team Motivation
In LIVE betting, this is one of the most important factors. At the opening of the game, the betting line reflects exclusively pre-match handouts. The line in the break can differ significantly from it. And here it is important to understand the motivation of the teams. How focused is the favorite on the game? Can he come out relaxed in the 2nd half and let the outsider pull himself up?
It often happens that, having gained leadership, the team loses motivation, despite the support of the coach and fans. This could be a good opportunity for you. On the other hand, the team can work out the first half poorly and use the second half to win back. To successfully put LIVE on the second half of the event, you need to be not only a capper, but also partly a psychologist, correctly assessing the team's habits and its character.
Select multiple matches to bet on
In the evening at EuroBasket or at night in the NBA, several events of interest to you can take place at once. All of them need to be kept in mind. After all, it may be necessary to move from one event to another in the absence of suitable rates. Therefore, ideally, it is worth watching several games at once and having information on them by analyzing the pre-match handouts.
Finding a reason
The break is a good opportunity to think carefully about what you saw and find out why everything happened the way it did in the first half and not otherwise. Did the opponent’s favorite underestimate or just have a bad day, what is the situation with fouls of key players, were there any injuries that significantly affect the game, etc. If the pre-match handouts do not correspond to what happened in the first half of the game, then you need to find the reason for this. Otherwise, you may not even hope for success in LIVE betting.
The catch-up strategy improved options: soft, double which are capable of making a profit, as well as an online calculator for calculating sports betting on the catch-up system.
The essence of the strategy
This strategy of the game was used even in the casino, but it also took root perfectly in betting on sporting events. It is not difficult to understand what the essence of the catch-up betting system is. In casinos, it is most widely used in betting on red / black, but in sports they bet on a wide variety of events.
To successfully apply this strategy, the player must have:
- Solid bank.
- Iron endurance.
A little later you will understand why this is needed. If at least 1 point is missing, then the “catch-up” betting system is not for you, and perhaps it is better for you.
Strategy Rules
How to bet on the catch-up betting system?
- It is better to choose odds greater than 2.0 for bets.
- If you lose, each subsequent bet must be doubled.
Let's take an example.
Initial data: Deposit — 10000r. First bet - 100r. Coefficient - 2
| Coefficient | Bid | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 100 | losing | -100 |
| 2.0 | 200 | losing | -300 |
| 2.0 | 400 | losing | -700 |
| 2.0 | 800 | losing | -1500 |
| 2.0 | 1600 | losing | -3100 |
| 2.0 | 3200 | win | +100 |
As can be seen from the table, the sixth bet has already played. Starting from 100 rubles, at the end of the cycle we had to bet 3200 rubles, and the total turnover Money reached 6100 rubles.
At the same time, the bank would only be enough for 7 bets. In the case of a series of 7 failures, the balance would be 10000-6300=3700r, which would not be enough for the 8th bet, since according to the rules of the strategy it should have been 6400 rubles.
Players who have been betting for more than a day often choose one of the teams and catch up with "draws". Why bet on a draw? Yes, because the odds for draws often exceed 3.0, and sometimes even 4.0, which, accordingly, gives excess profit.
Do not forget that the catch-up system is almost always a long way, requiring serious financial investments. Of course, you can get lucky and make a profit after the first or second bet, but often this does not happen.
Catching up strategy calculator
For convenience, you can use this online calculator to calculate the catch-up. How to use it is described below.
« Desired net profit» - here you enter the amount that you want to win in the end.
« Already lost money» - the amount that you lost during the cycle (after 1 iteration after it is automatically calculated).
« Coefficient» - odds of the event you are going to bet on.
Catching up options
The use of catch-up is not limited to betting on a draw or on the victory of any team, below I will show examples of betting on the best options for the catch-up system.
Strategy goal scored in between catch-up on football
For this system, it is better to choose one or more "driving" teams.
Let's take the Euro 2016 match as an example: Italy - Ireland.
As you can see from the screenshot, if you guess the period of time in which the goal was scored, you can make a profit of 3 or even 4 times.
Let's take a closer look at what if we used catch-up in practice:
Assume that the original bank is 10,000 rubles.
- bet per goal from 1-15 minutes 100 rubles coefficient 4.3. The bet loses.
- bet per goal from 16-30 min 200 rubles with odds 3.38. The score is still 0:0.
- bet on goal from 31-45 min 400 rubles coefficient 3.14. Lost again.
- bet on goal from 46-60 min 800 rubles coefficient 3.05. Failure.
- bet on goal from 61-75 min 1600 rubles coefficient 3.0. Again defeat. Balance on this moment: 10000-(100-200-400-800-1600) = 6900r
- bet we continue to stick to the strategy and double the bet. Please note that the coefficient has become much smaller, but it will be enough for us in order to win back losses in case of victory and remain in a significant plus. We put 3200 rubles at a factor of 2.45.
Luck smiles on us, and the players of Ireland score a goal in the 85th minute of the game.
The net winnings amounted to 3200 * 2.45 = 7840 rubles. 7840 - 3200 (our rate) = 4640 + 6900 = 11540 rubles. Net profit amounted to 1540 rubles.
As you can see, the match was held between the "grassroots" teams and our bet played in the final 15 minutes.
Teams that play defensively are best avoided. Otherwise, you will have to "catch up" with them in the second, and possibly in the third duel. The ideal solution would be to focus on teams that like and know how to attack and score a lot of goals, such as Barcelona or Real Madrid.
Football strategy, even-odd with catch-up
The bookmaker offers to bet on the fact that the match will end in total an even number goals (for example, 1:1, 2:2 or 3:1), or odd (1:2, 0:1, 4:1). Usually bookmakers set equal odds on even-odd, which vary between 1.9-2.0.
If you use catch-up, then the chances of success will increase rapidly. You just need to find a football club that would have a series, for example, of several "odds" and bet on "even", doubling the bet if you lose.
At first glance, the game according to this strategy is not particularly difficult, but who knows how long the “odd” series of one of the teams can drag on. Purely theoretically, someday your bet will play if the money doesn’t run out or the bookmaker doesn’t “cut” the limit.
But sometimes bad things happen. Personally, I saw with my own eyes how one team gave out a series of seventeen (!!!) "even" matches in a row. Therefore, before you start betting, carefully analyze everything and weigh the pros and cons.
Double catch-up strategy (double catch-up)
“Double catch-up” or, as it is also called “double-catch-up” or “catch-up on totals”, differs from the usual one in that it involves bets with alternating the outcome of an event to the diametrically opposite one. Let's break it down point by point.
- Suppose you notice that one of the teams has issued a series of several matches for "total over" (over, over, over, over, over). So your bet is on "total under".
- You are lucky and the very first bet brings you profit (TB,TB,TB,TB,TB,TM). If the bet lost, then you would have to double the bet until the result you want plays.
- Now you should use the second part of the strategy, betting on "total over" (TB,TB,TB,TB,TB, TM,TB) and also double the amount of the bet to win.
What's the catch, you ask? Everything is extremely simple. The author of the double catch-up strategy noted that the series TB, TM, TB, TM are quite rare, and the series TM, TM, TM, TB, TB, TB are found with enviable constancy.
It should be noted that the successful use of this strategy requires the iron will of the player and the ability not to be afraid to bet big money. After all, no matter how ridiculous it sounds, most of the clients of bookmakers simply do not know how to wait for their chance. In addition, not everyone has a solid pot, which would be enough for 12-15 bets, because, unlike the usual "catch-up", the use of a double significantly increases the risk of running into an unfavorable series.
Soft catch-up
"Soft catch-up" is considered a more reliable strategy than the classic one. Its beauty is that you can “catch up” with the desired event with odds less than 2. However, you will have to increase the amount of the bet significantly.
The “soft catch-up” is calculated using the following formula: 
Example: you decide to bet with odds of 1.65. Before that, you have already made several unsuccessful bets and the total loss amounted to 450 rubles, while you plan to win 600 rubles. Now we calculate the bet amount using the formula:
S \u003d (600 + 450) / (1.65-1) \u003d 1610 rubles.
(Use my calculator above to automatically calculate the bet amount)
If you bet this amount, and the bet wins, then the net winnings will be 600 rubles. And if you are unlucky again, then you can easily calculate the amount of the next bet.
Applying the strategy soft catch-up”, you can play with almost any odds, which greatly increases your chances of winning.
In this article, I described a variant of its use based on flat, thereby moving away from main problem soft catch-up: rapidly increasing bet amounts.
Quarter catch-up strategy in basketball
According to statistics, one of the four quarters of the fight between the favorite and the underdog ends with the victory of the latter. That is why, by increasing the amount of the bet, you can easily catch the desired outcome. If the favorite wins in all four segments of the match, then it is necessary to continue to “catch up” with him in the next match to the bitter end.
Usually, the odds for outsiders are quite high. Often they exceed 2.0. If the coefficient is less, then it is necessary to calculate the amount of the bet using the formula from the previous paragraph.
Remember that a series of failures can completely deprive you of money, so good judgment and careful analysis will be your main allies.
Catching up strategy in tennis
Everyone knows that a tennis match consists of sets, which consist of games. Each draw won by the judges is worth fifteen points. To successfully win a set, you need to score 15, then 30 and 40 points, after the next win, points are not added, and the tennis player (tennis player) is awarded the victory in the set.
Bets on this strategy must be made in live mode. As a bet, we will take the score during the match 15:15.
Why do we take this account as a basis? Yes, because, according to statistics, it is most often found in tennis. Usually the odds for this event vary around 2.0.
If you follow this sport and have the maximum information about the players who enter the court, you can easily predict the result you need. This strategy is especially suitable for fights in which athletes of equal strength meet.
As observations show, in women's tennis the score of 15:15 is much more common than in men's.
Hockey catch-up strategy
We will consider the strategy of chasing "for a draw in the period."
As you know, a hockey match consists of three periods, each of which can end in a draw. For such an outcome, bookmakers usually give very high odds, with which you can cover not only losses during the cycle, but also get a good profit.
For such a bet, it is necessary to choose teams that are not distinguished by high performance. Even if none of the periods ends in a draw, you should continue to catch up with the team in the next match.
Outcome. Is it possible to win using the catch-up betting system?
It seems that there is nothing easier than playing this strategy. You just need to double the pot and wait for the bet to play. However, this is not the case.
As can be seen from the examples at the beginning of the article, starting from 100 rubles, already our fifth rate was 1600 rubles. 7 rate would be 6400 rubles. Moreover, the total turnover would already be 12,700 rubles, so a bank of 10,000 rubles would obviously not be enough, even if the amount of your first bet is only 100 rubles.
A significant disadvantage of this strategy is that it is necessary to increase the amount of the bet all the time. So you can quickly reach the limit maximum bid and the bookmaker simply will not allow you to complete the cycle by cutting the limits.
Let's continue to study betting systems, with the help of which bettors get the opportunity to increase their capital. Today the focus is on one of the most popular types sport in the world of betting is basketball. The strategy for basketball in quarters is subject to study, which, when tested, showed good results.
A little digressing from the topic, I want to note why basketball is so popular among betting enthusiasts. This is due to the fact that there are a lot of basketball games; at the height of the season, an average of 80 or more matches take place daily. Such a number of games offers a wide range of matches to bet on. Let's not drag this topic out and drag it out, because "time is money", so let's go directly to the strategy.
There is nothing complicated in the strategy itself, it is simple and easy to understand. To bet on this strategy, we first need to choose matches in which there is a clear favorite and an underdog. Surely you have already guessed that we will put in live mode. Since the phrase “quarters” is present in the name of the strategy, we can conclude that we will bet on quarters using catch-up.
Let's take a closer look at what we will bet on.
A basketball match consists of 4 quarters of 10 minutes each, in some championships a quarter lasts 12 minutes (USA, Canada, China, Philippines). The bookmaker makes it possible to bet on outcomes by quarters. This proposal interests us. Before starting, we choose a game in which a dog and an outsider meet. Having noted the match for ourselves, we bet on the victory of a weak team in the first quarter. The coefficient for such an outcome will be on average in the region of 2.3-2.5 or more.
If the outsider wins in the first quarter, we make a profit and leave this match. It is not worth continuing to bet on this meeting, as it can be risky further on and the outsider will merge the next quarters.
But the possibility that the favorite can win is not ruled out. In such a situation, it is necessary to double the size of the initial bet and bet on the victory of the underdog in the second quarter. In case of loss, we continue to bet in this way for the next quarters until your bet wins.
Quarter Basketball Strategy: Qualifying Matches
Match analysis does not great work. To do this, you need to choose meetings in which the favorite and the outsider play. But at the same time, we draw on the handicap offered by the bookmaker, it should not exceed 10 points.
In addition, you need to study the results of the last 5 matches in the championships and 5 matches in head-to-head confrontations. If an outsider in such matches won at least one quarter, then such a match suits us. In cases where the underdog lost all quarters in at least one of the considered matches, then we skip such a game.
Alternative rate
There is an alternative betting option for this strategy. You can bet on the victory of the favorite in the quarter. The likelihood that your bet will play is much higher. Dog, even being in difficult situation, able to win at least one quarter (of course there are exceptions). But with this choice, the coefficient is correspondingly much lower. If the odds to win the favorite fell below 1.5, then I do not recommend betting on such an offer.
How to use total betting in basketball, a practical analysis existing strategies and advice, is it possible to win, as well as an overview of programs for calculating the total match based on statistics, can you trust? All this in this article.
A feature of betting on basketball is a huge variety of totals in the line. This is due to the division of the game into halves, quarters and the presence a large number statistical indicators of general and individual, related to the total.
What are
What bets on total in basketball do bookmakers offer?
In the main line of the match, there is a classic total total - the number of points scored for the match by both teams. You can bet on TB or TM of the specified amount of points.
Additional total in basketball can be different. This
- Bets on a different total than the average.
- The number of points scored by teams not for the entire game, but for a certain interval - half the game, a quarter.
- Total points for even or odd (match, half, quarter)
- Individual total. These can be points scored, the number of fouls, rebounds, free throws, three-pointers, etc. The bookmaker offers similar bets both on teams and on individual players. (What happens in other sports)
- Asian total ( what does it look like in basketball)
There are also specific bets on the total in the list:
Does the total in basketball count as overtime (OT)?
For beginners, the question inevitably arises: does the total count in basketball with or without overtime? The word overtime is often abbreviated as "OT".
There is no single approach in BC. Some count with overtime, others without.
Some bookmakers set odds separately for regular time and for overtime… Here is an example of an excerpt from the rules of a well-known bookmaker.
What is more often total even or odd?
What is more common - total even or odd. On the net, you can find arguments from supporters of both points of view, which are usually superficial.
Basketball rules are such that in addition to two-point, three-point, free throws, there are also other situations, for example, when teams are penalized with an additional free throw (after the player scores the ball with a foul). All this makes, in my opinion, the choice of even/odd random.
That is, at a distance total even or odd has no advantage.
This is confirmed by the even/odd odds in bookmakers – they are usually the same.
However, there interesting point: when the basketball match comes to an end, there are, for example, 2-3 minutes left, the total for even/odd starts to change depending on the current score.
This suggests that in a short period of time the option of a two-point shot still becomes the most likely.
This is the basis of one of the strategies that we will consider next.
Basketball Total Betting Strategies
Review of some strategies for total in basketball.
Strategy for total in a quarter even or odd + catch-up
The strategy is simple and attractive, there are many reviews about it on the net that are diametrically opposed. Its proponents argue that it is based on statistics, namely, quarters in a basketball game very rarely go so that they all end with a total of even or odd. Regarding the probability of this, figures from 90% to 97% are given.
The strategy algorithm is as follows: We choose a basketball match, in principle, any, then we bet on the total even (or odd) in the first quarter. We watch the broadcast (or just follow the score online). The bet passes - we move on to the next match, no - we start chasing, doubling the amount of the bet on even in the second quarter, and so on until the “winning end”.
Let's try the strategy in practice
On March 27, as part of the next NBA game day, 5 meetings took place. Let's consider the action of the strategy on the example of one of them. The screenshot below gives us the statistics of the last 10 matches of both teams. The sample, of course, is small, but still we observe that 2 matches out of 20 ended with quarters for total even or odd.
Let's say our bank is 6000 rubles. The bookmaker set odds of 1.9 for the total odds.
Let's choose the "cautious" option: we will determine the planned winnings of 20 rubles, so the initial bet
20 / (1.9 - 1) = 20 / 0.9 = 22 rubles, which is 0.33% of the bankroll
If we want the profit to be fixed, then the amount of the bet must be calculated each time using the formula
S = (L + W)/K – 1, where L is the planned gain, W is the total loss, K is the coefficient.
In order not to strain the brain much, there is an online calculator for calculating
We bet on total odds in the first quarter.
The first quarter ended "not in our favor" - 27:22 (odd total). I note that in live (live) the bookmaker lowered the odds for the total odd/even in a quarter to 1.87 — Thus, we bet on the 2nd quarter in the amount of
(20 + 22)/(1.87 – 1) = 42/0.87 = 48
In the second quarter we get - 31:31 (even total).
Our winnings, as we planned, amounted to - 48 * 1.87 - (22 + 48) = 90 - 70 = 20 rubles
The bankroll we have chosen is designed for 8 iterations, that is, if two selected matches in a row are played differently than we expected, a “drain” cannot be avoided. Therefore, for the experiment, we continue the game.
The next two matches (which do not overlap each other in time), in which we repeat to play even in quarters -
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors & Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Laker
In the first of them, only the third quarter (27:27) brings an even total.
And, finally, in the last match, I must admit, rather quickly, we get 4 odd totals.
Our loss (the sum of bets in 4 iterations) is 22 + 48 + 103 + 222 = 395 rubles
Four of them managed to “track” quarters by four. The first quarter of the meeting Detroit Pistons - New York Knicks ends with a score of 36:34, our bet passes. Profit - 20 rubles.
In the next three matches, using the above calculations, we get a fixed profit (20 rubles) on the first, second and third steps, respectively. So, for two game days of the NBA, we received an income of 20 * 6 = 120 rubles
This strategy can be modified depending on the "fantasy" of the player.
- If the first bet has not played, for example, even, then the next bet is made on odd, etc.
- The player enters the game in live and only if the first two quarters ended on an even or an odd number. He puts, of course, on the opposite result.
Unless, of course, we show the miracles of forecasting in comparison with the team of bookmaker analysts...
There is a way to influence this alignment. It is based on a change in the line from its initial placement until the start of the match.
The player's actions must be as follows: Early in the morning we save the recently set line for basketball (for matches that take place in the evening or at night - NBA). After 10-12 hours, we repeat this operation and begin to compare. We see that the line has changed in some positions - somewhere the total went up, somewhere down. These are the matches we are interested in. If the gap with the original line is 2 or more points, then the players have a chance to have an advantage over the bookmaker.
Let's take a closer look at the example of one of the NBA matches
In the screenshots, we see the initial total from the bookmaker - 229 and before the match - 231. Entering the additional list of the total, we find the total 229 and bet on Under (229). The coefficient in this case will be 2.19.
Line changes are usually not associated with some exclusive information received by the bookmaker, but solely with the desire of the bookmaker to equalize cash flows in both directions (this is how the bookmaker makes a profit).
Therefore, the original total remains the most probable, and we can use it.
IN individual cases when the total changes significantly, it makes sense to analyze latest news from the team (for example, before the match it became known about the injury best sniper, which brings the team the lion's share of points).
The match selected for example ended with a total of 224, our bet played.
Let us define the basic rules of the strategy.
- Choosing a bookmaker with the highest odds. This is important, especially at a distance, if you are serious about "fighting" with the bookmaker.
- We fix the state of the line as early as possible for the matches we are interested in (optimally - immediately after it is set), preferably at least 10-12 hours before the start of the matches.
- The authors of the strategy consider 2 points to be the minimum shift in the line when a meeting can be considered suitable for our strategy.
- All bets are placed. In this case, at a distance we will have an advantage over the bookmaker.
Main rule:
With an increase in the total, we bet on TM (from the initial value)
Was 200 → became 204 → put TM (200)
When decreasing - put on TB (from the original value)
Was 200 → became 197 → put TB (200)
Conclusions.
It seems to me that the strategy is worthy of attention. It can be adopted by bettors who play flat. Searching for "value" bets requires knowledge and time, and in this case we increase our chances in confrontation with the bookmaker without spending much effort.
Shchukin's strategy for total in basketball
The strategy is based on a pre-match analysis of a basketball match and the calculation of the probable individual total of both teams based on the statistics of the last matches of the teams and personal meetings. Accordingly, it is assumed that you can correctly guess or calculate the outcome of the match and the total.
In short:
- We select a match for analysis, not forgetting that we need team statistics.
- We calculate the estimated total of the 1st team (hosts) using the formula. To do this, add up the points scored by the team over the last 5-7 games, and divide the resulting amount by the number of matches. Further, we add 1 for the victory to the result obtained and subtract 1.5 for each of the losses (we take into account recent meetings commands). The calculation of the total is completed by adding three points - the "master's bonus".
- We do a similar calculation for the 2nd team, with the exception of adding a “bonus”.
- Based on the statistics of personal meetings for three years, we calculate the average total of the 1st team in these matches. The resulting value is added to the total obtained in points 2 and divided by two. We do the same for the opposing team. As a result, we get the probable total for each of the teams.
- On the final stage We compare with the BC line. If the total we received differs from the total set by the bookmaker by more than 5 points, then such a match is suitable for betting. If the total in the line is more than “ours”, then we bet on TM. Accordingly, if the total in the line is less than “ours”, we bet on the TO.
Let's analyze the match analysis using an example:
- Choose one of the NBA matches
- Bookmakers often provide pre-match team statistics.
It is, of course, incomplete detailed information can be found on one of the statistical analysis sites (for example, https://www.sport12x.com/en/statistics?sport=9&tourn=31). Result of last 7 matches New York Knicks 
We make a simple calculation: 98 + 95 + 101 + 105 + 110 + 87 + 112 = 708
708/7 = 101.1
101.1 + 3 = 104.1
104.1 + 1 – 6 *1.5 =105.1 – 9 = 96.1 - Detroit Pistons last 7 match results
87 + 95 + 96 + 112 + 75 + 83 + 96 = 644
644/7 = 92
92 + 1 – 6 * 1.5 = 93 – 9 = 84 - We calculate the average totals in personal confrontations (10 meetings).
New York Knicks.
92 + 105 + 89 +102 +105 +108 + 90 + 95 (no overtime) + 81 + 95 = 962
962/10 = 96.2
(96.2 + 96.1)/2 = 96.15 Detroit Pistons
112 + 102 + 102 + 89 + 111 + 96 + 112 + 95 (no overtime) + 97 + 98 = 1014
1014/10 = 101.4
(101.4 + 84)/2 = 92.7 So, the estimated totals of the teams are 96 and 93, total 189 points. - The match total set by BC was 209 points.
Thus, our calculated total differs from the total in the line by 20 points. This, of course, is a lot. It's time to think about whether there is some kind of catch here ... If we come to the conclusion that it is not, then we can safely bet on Under (209).
As a result, the teams scored 204 points, our bet played
But the forecast itself turned out to be far from reality.
Some features of the strategy.
- The strategy requires pre-match analysis (search for statistical data) and calculations, which makes it a little more difficult to apply
- As a result of the analysis, we have the estimated score, the individual total of the teams and the total total of the match. In my opinion, the latter is the most reliable indicator that you should focus on when choosing a bet.
- Critics of the strategy often complain about insufficiently serious analysis (extreme total results are not discarded, home and away games are not taken into account, the strength of the opponent, etc.)
Conclusions.
When talking about the passability of bets using this strategy, the figure of 70% is usually mentioned, which, of course, causes some distrust. However, everyone can test this system and draw their own conclusions. In my opinion, in the age of information, serious mathematicians are compiling software systems that can completely "calculate" the match with all its nuances. Therefore, such a strategy, based on very simplified calculations, is useful for bettors, but can hardly serve as the only basis for the game…
Strategy for Total over or under according to the results of the first half
This strategy is called in the network in different ways. main idea next. We choose a match (preferably several), fix the initial totals. Watching the first half of the meeting (two quarters). We compare the initial total and the current one, set by the bookmaker, depending on the course of the game. If the difference is 10%, then such matches suit us. If the total has fallen (teams score a little), then we bet on TB. Otherwise, the total has increased, we bet on TM.
It so happened that this strategy was tested by me on the example of the already mentioned match Detroit Pistons - New York Knicks. The total before the match was 209.
The teams started the meeting so famously that they managed to score 70 points in the first quarter. The current total reached 227 points and after the first half it stopped at 225.
The difference was 16 points, I bet on Under (225). As you can see from the next screenshot, the teams scored 204 points for two - the bet played.
Another example from practice is the NBA meeting Oklahoma City Thunder - Orlando Magic.
Total after the first half decreased by 22 points compared to the original. Following the strategy, we bet on Over (200.5).
The teams "finished the game" to overtime, but the total was "broken" in the regular time of the match (204)
What you should pay attention to when playing on this system:
- Choice of matches. Recommendations on this matter are different - the exclusion of youth games, cup finals, unpredictable "exotic" championships. It is worth agreeing that, in comparison with betting on even/odd (where, in principle, any match is suitable), it is better to focus on well-known leagues (NBA, Euroleague, etc.)
- There are different views on how to evaluate the value of the total bias when selecting matches for a bet. It was mentioned above about 10% (or the first two digits, which is the same). This is a general case, but, in principle, other options can be considered, starting with 5-7 points. Here the player can analyze the situation himself and make a decision.
- On the net, you can find a description of a strategy called "total boom basketball strategy." It also provides for catch-up in case of failure, which looks quite logical.
More strategies. Briefly
The possibilities of bettors are not limited to the presented strategies.
Another very interesting and attractive area is the strategies "" and "" on totals in basketball, which in a sense can be considered win-win.
Also popular is the quarter total strategy, based on the belief that all four quarters of a team are not playing over or under. It is similar to the even/odd quarter system, only in this case, the TB or TM in the quarter “catches up”.
Prediction for total in basketball. The role of statistics
Most popular strategies are based on statistics. Various basketball statistics services provide all kinds of information about leagues, teams, players. The priority, of course, is NBA statistics (for example, https://ru.global.nba.com/statistics/teamstats).
NBA fans know the impressive scoring records in the most popular league in the world.
The maximum number of points scored by both teams in regulation time is 320 points (Golden State - Denver, 162:158, 02.11.1990). If you take into account overtime, then 370 points (Detroit - Denver, 186:184 (3 OT), 12/13/1983).
How to predict the total in basketball
There are different approaches to solving the issue of predictions for the exact total in basketball. Some we have already discussed above.
You should definitely take into account the basis (the same as in other sports), but basketball has its own specifics:
- Analysis physical form players (difficult schedule, moving long distances, etc.).
- The presence of injured players in both teams. This factor can seriously affect the total. The situation must be monitored almost before the start of the match.
- When calculating the total of each of the teams, using statistical data, it is worth considering:
- Home field factor (if the team plays at home, then home matches are taken into account).
- Games are discarded, the result of which is not typical for one reason or another for the team being evaluated.
- Overtime, playoff games are not taken into account when it comes to regular season (performance drops in knockout games).
Possession Ratio Approach
Another interesting approach to the analysis of the total in basketball will appeal to fans of game statistics of matches. It is based on the ratio of the number of ball possessions of each team and the points scored. You can determine the effectiveness of the team's actions in attack and defense.
If there are 120 points per 100 ball possessions, the attack efficiency is 1.2 points per possession.
To calculate the probable total of the match, it is necessary to correctly predict the number of ball possessions in the match and determine the effectiveness of the teams' attacks.
In basketball, there was also a well-known scheme for calculating the total for American football. We have already considered its application for European football, for basketball it looks similar, only there it is necessary to use the average total (in relation to a particular league). For example, in the NBA, according to the service https://www.sport12x.com/ru/mathematics/basketbol/ssha_nba from 2012 to 2017, the average total was 200.45 points.
Overview of programs for calculating the total in basketball: tables, calculators
Various mathematical tools for calculating the total in basketball are actively promoted online on commercial basis. The issue of their effectiveness requires a separate study. Here I will just give examples of mathematical tools that are used by bettors.
Considering Shchukin's strategy for basketball, we made calculations manually using simple formulas. The next level is automatic calculations based on Excel spreadsheets or programs.
A type of simple calculator program for calculating where information needs to be entered in a table. In contrast to the descriptions of the calculation of the total according to Schukin on the Internet, here the selection of matches is limited to six games.
Another option is to calculate directly in an Excel spreadsheet. One of them is called “Basketball Betting Analytical Program” and determines the outcome and total of the match.
Here the sample is 10 matches. In the screenshot below we see the results of the calculations.
For these funds, it is typical that statistics are entered manually.
Among the more serious programs that independently collect the necessary data, we can single out the program for betting on basketball matches WinBasket. The program window is divided into several areas. In the left one, we select a match, after which we observe the statistics of the teams and the calculated indicators - score, totals, odds. According to the authors of this program, it analyzes matches according to three schemes at once:
- Shchukin system
- Outcome/Match system
- NBA fly system
Algorithms, programs, models based on statistical analysis and probability theory are used by all participants in the betting market (bookmakers, gamblers, cappers). In the relevant forums, one can find arguments about Markov chains, the Kolmogorov-Champen equation. However, I am convinced that all this is only one of the means to achieve the goal, and the data issued by these programs cannot be taken as a 100% prediction of the upcoming event.
Summing up
Assessing the prospects for total in basketball for betting, I can say the following. Basketball is not a priority sport for me. However, when I got to know this area of betting more closely, I discovered quite a lot of interesting opportunities. It is basketball that seems to me a convenient “battlefield” with a bookmaker when using various strategies related to changing the line, live betting, middles and surebets.
