It is very easy to beat a bookmaker at first glance. It is worth making the first bet, correctly predicting the outcome of the event, seeing the addition of funds to your account, and it immediately seems that a successful betting career has just begun. In reality, things are developing more pessimistically. Beginners begin to place more and more bets, follow the advice of unreliable sources, act on intuition, rush, wanting to win back faster and make many other gross mistakes that will soon lead to complete defeat and disappointment in the betting world. This stops someone, and some continue to try further, without any work on themselves, wanting to quickly find information on the Internet that will tell them how to consistently win at bets.
It is on such players that the betting business thrives. There will always be enough people who are ready to bet on sports and do not have certain qualities to have at least a minimal chance of staying in the black over a long distance. Sports betting can be very lucrative for bettors, but if it was easy to win money at a bookmaker, then their existence would not make sense.
Less than 10 percent of players actually make money with sports betting, and the rest either go into the red, or at best stay with their money.
Want to have a better chance of getting into that coveted 10%? Then remember and follow the rules described below. We will not give you a 100% ready-made solution on how to beat bookmaker, but we will tell you about the basic principles that will significantly bring you closer to success or at least move you away from failure. Let's consider them.
1. Want to win against a bookmaker? Get ready to lose.
Let's explain what this means. If you do not have money that you are willing to risk, and if you lose it, your financial condition will worsen, sports betting should be postponed for better times.
It is right to start a betting career with a good start-up capital if you really want sports betting to bring tangible income. You must be mentally prepared to lose all the money that you brought to the bookmaker, but at the same time you should not care about the outcome of your bets.
Manage the initial bank
Regardless of the size of the starting capital, for the first 100-200 bets, you need to allocate small amounts, no more than 1-3 percent of all the money in the account. This is guaranteed to protect you from the rapid loss of all your money in the event of a series of unsuccessful bets. Also, betting the minimum size with the lowest cost will help you gain experience in different situations, for example, betting on the wrong selection, betting at the wrong time, unnecessarily risky bets, canceling a bet or freezing it due to something.
The more experienced a player becomes, the more efficiently he will use his capital, but even beginners should understand that risking a large part of their money on a gaming account is not very promising.
2. Keep bid statistics
In order to beat the bookmaker at a distance, you cannot do without your own betting method. You can develop it yourself (the preferred option) or, at worst, download it from the Internet.
Detailed statistics on your own bets can help you develop the right attitude to the size of bets, their number, type, and more. For example, by analyzing his bets on , a player can conclude how profitable they are for him and adjust their number and size. If such bets bring a steady income, then their size can be increased, and if the result of betting on totals is near zero, then it is worth reducing their number and carefully choosing the appropriate events.
3. Carefully study the rules of the bookmaker
Each bookmaker has its own rules for accepting bets. Also, many bookmakers have their own, which are not found in others. If you lost money due to inattention, without reading the information, then the bookmaker will never take your side, because the rules are available to everyone and the player is strongly recommended to study them when registering.
4. It's easier to beat the bookmaker when you understand something
Bet only on “your” sport First of all, choose a sport for betting that you really like and you understand it. It is even better if you yourself were involved in this sport, for example, played in the volleyball team of the faculty during your studies. Professional athletes are prohibited from betting on sports, especially if they have even the slightest relation to the events they are betting on.
Understanding the sport will increase the likelihood of a correct prediction for a particular event. It is important to know the features of the championship or tournament, the statistics of past seasons.
It is also necessary to follow the news of the sport you are betting on so that any course of events is not unexpected. For example, regularly attending hockey matches of the Continental Hockey League for several seasons and actively participating in the discussion of news, match results, transfers will add confidence in an analytical approach to betting on the events of this championship.
Betting on a sport in which you do not know all the rules and features is a dubious occupation. Sooner or later, a situation will arise for which you will not be ready, and the bet will already be placed and you will need luck in order not to lose money in a ridiculous way. You can learn all the nuances of betting on one of the sports from your own experience, spending a significant amount of money for this, but choose the path that you follow.
5. Odds matter!
Odds in bookmakers are constantly adjusted due to changes in the probability of an outcome or due to a large number of bets. For example, the odds for winning a favorite in a football match can decrease from 1.35 to 1.2 within 2-3 days, since many players bet on this particular outcome, and in order to reduce the risk of incurring a loss, the bookmaker underestimates this quote. And if one of the key players of the favorite team gets injured, the odds for winning can rise by 1-2 points. Also, in the line of each bookmaker, you can find coefficients that are objectively overestimated or underestimated.
Correct odds are a plus at a distance If for several bets the difference in coefficients of 1-2 points is insignificant, then at a distance of 100-200 bets, such a difference can play an important role. If you want to beat the bookmaker, try not to bet on the odds that are loaded and on the odds that are underestimated, as sooner or later this will negatively affect your betting account. Conversely, by betting at odds that are slightly better than they should be, you automatically increase your earning potential for the same probability of the desired outcome occurring.
A big problem for beginners is the belief that a low odds is a 100% guarantee to win against a bookmaker. It's a delusion. In modern sports, the competition is so intense that the probability of an unexpected result is high in every sport, in every championship and in every round. If you constantly choose an outcome with a coefficient of 1.3, then out of 10 bets, 3 unsuccessful bets are enough to have a negative result at such a distance, not to mention more losing bets or even smaller odds. The most effective are the coefficients in the range from 1.7 to 2.3. The higher the coefficient, the more profit the player will receive if he wins a bet of the same size.
Experienced bettors place bets at bookmakers that offer higher odds than others. The right approach to odds is one of the key factors for successful betting against bookmakers.
6. What types of bets should be made to beat the bookmaker?
Each player, especially if it is a beginner, wants to bet less and win more. In sports betting, you can increase the odds using the bet types or . Taking 4 events with odds of 2 in an accumulator and winning a bet at a total odd of 16 by betting one amount is more tempting than betting 4 equal amounts on each of the events separately. But this is an unprofessional approach. The more events in the accumulator, the lower the probability of the bet becoming winning. It's the same with systems. - these are the most reliable rates, which are not affected by anything extraneous. Professional bettors rarely use parlays or systems in their strategies, but even if parlays are present in their arsenal, they will have 2 or a maximum of 3 events. Beginners in sports betting, usually from their own experience, understand that the reliability of singles is more logical than the profitability of accumulators and systems.
7. Forget about signs and premonitions
Few people manage to just guess the results The results of sporting events are a natural result based on a mass of real and explainable factors. If you want to win against the bookmaker, then forget about any ways to predict the outcome based on signs and intuition. If one player believes that on a rainy Saturday his bet on an underdog win is more likely to win, then there will always be a second player who follows the opposite sign and bets on the favorite - what should the underdog and the favorite do in this case?
Some players often make their bets based on the results of the round. For example, it is easy to believe in a large number of goals scored in the last match of the National Hockey League tour, if the rest of the matches rarely scored 3-4 goals. But despite the results of other matches, the players of the teams meeting in the last round play their own game and it depends only on how many goals they score.
So even if your guess or hunch bet wins, don't make it into a "how to beat the bookie based on gut" strategy because it's a fluke that's very likely to work against you in the long run. A careful and detailed analysis of the real factors that can affect the result will lead you to a much greater win than forecasting on intuition.
8. Buying predictions - be careful!
Now on the Internet you can find a lot of offers for the sale of sports predictions. Many sites, by offering their predictions, “guarantee” that you can beat the bookmaker without too much trouble. Most of these sellers, who are called cappers or tipsters, are not worth the money spent on their forecasts, but there are also. Before you buy one or a series of forecasts from one of them, carefully study their past statistics, reviews about them, evaluate their success at certain times of the season, compare the price of their forecasts with others, make sure they are honest and, if possible, communicate with them personally .
Tipster predictions, risk is yours It is important that you do not lose your patience with the initial bets when buying a series of predictions, because despite experience and skill, everyone can have unsuccessful series. To make a profit, sometimes you have to make a serious amount of bets with a capper or tipster.
In no case do not choose from the rates offered by cappers those that you will not bet or on which you will bet more than required - this will completely deprive your decision to buy forecasts of logic.
Betting under the dictation of forecast sellers, even if they will generate income, is a risky investment in which you will only need preliminary analysis, financial capabilities and patience.
9. Don't get carried away
If sports betting starts to bring you pleasure, even if you lose money, you should stop. Excitement, no matter how much it gives emotions, will never lead to anything good. Excitement prevents players from making predictions backed up by logic. They are ready to place bets blindly believing in a positive result, for example, betting on the victory of their favorite team or on the result for which they give the highest odds and so on.
Excitement does not correlate well with profitable betting, for which a clear and detailed analysis will always be important.
Highly emotional bettors who are heavily affected by losing or winning will find it very difficult to beat the bookmaker in the long run.
10. Winning strategy at a bookmaker
The most effective rates will be those that are included in the framework of one of the strategies, of which quite a few have been invented during their existence.
Each of the strategies has its positive and negative sides, but with the right approach, they can help the player consistently beat the bookmaker. A more powerful tool for profiting from sports betting will be a strategy in which the player will make his own adjustments based on experience and analysis of his actions.
Any player, even a beginner, can develop his own strategy and successfully apply it in sports betting, and his chances of beating the bookmaker with random bets are extremely small.
It should be understood that some strategies, for example, or the search for erroneous odds, are not welcomed by bookmakers and can bring trouble to bettors who use them.
11. Promotions and bonuses increase the chance to win
Most bookmakers come up with various promotions and bonuses in order to attract the maximum number of players, for example, a first deposit bonus, cash and material prizes for winning a betting contest for a certain tournament, and others.
Being engaged in sports betting, you can make additional profit if you participate in promotions and bonuses offered by the bookmaker. Among them there are very tempting options that you definitely shouldn’t pass by, for example, like these. There are players who specialize only in promotions and bookmaker bonuses. They are called bonus hunters.
When choosing a bookmaker, carefully study all the promotions and bonuses available in it and try not to neglect them, if this does not contradict your sports betting strategy.
12. What if an insider...?
Now we will give most likely bad advice, but without this information the article would not be complete.
If you grew up among sportsmen or those who are your close friends today, then why not use their information against the bookmaker? Insider information is a serious problem for bookmakers, and entire organizations are created to solve it, for example, Federbet. On the other hand, petty advice or knowledge of a person, which in the subject of some sporting events will not bring serious losses to beeches, and will not make a player who has made a winning bet suffer from remorse for a long time.
The main thing is not to turn this opportunity into something more, for example, into larger bets or the sale of deals. And remember that the use of insiders can harm athletes, so do not abuse it.
13. Get inspired by sports betting legends or learn from them how to beat the bookies
Have you ever heard of bookmakers like Bob Vulgaris or Tony Bloom? If not, do you know the success story of Patrick Veitch, Joe Pet and Vasu Shan? In addition to them, among the greats, one can single out Lam Banker and Billy Walters.
Study the biographies of these people, highlight their best qualities and be inspired by them. This will help you understand that bookmakers are weaker than they seem, which means they can and should be beaten. Most likely you will not be able to reach the same heights, but even 1 percent of their success is already big winnings in sports betting. Start right now!
Conclusion
I think that after reading the article, you have received enough information to answer the question “Is it possible to beat a bookmaker?”. By default, the bookmaker has an advantage over the player, as he chooses events, outcomes and odds. But using all of these factors correctly, while maintaining patience and self-confidence, you will be able to turn sports betting into income.
Good luck bidding! So far in this article, we have not voiced an important, but independent factor of a successful game against a bookmaker - the luck we wish you in your sports betting!
Uppsala University professor David Sumpter decided to test his knowledge of statistics and luck in football betting, and at the same time earn extra money. With £400 on hand, the professor netted £108.33 in two months, which is 27%. This is not a jackpot, but I can’t imagine how it is possible to increase such an amount better, while remaining within the law.
According to the professor, bookmakers usually pocket 5% (office margin), which corresponds to a coefficient of 1.90 on two equally likely outcomes (for example, on the outcome of a tennis match). That is, if you simultaneously bet 50 rubles for each of these two outcomes, then after the game, instead of the original 100 rubles, you will have 95 rubles in your hands for any result, and 5 rubles will settle at the bookmaker. So pretty soon you will be left without money. However, due to competition between bookmakers and the existence of low-margin bookmakers, the odds for individual sporting events can have a margin of 1.5%, and even lower for top events like the World Cup final. In this case, you need to beat the bookmakers by at least 2% in order to stay profitable on sports betting. This was the goal of the Swedish professor in his field research.
The mathematician used various statistical models, of which he applied four in practice, and only one of them helped to earn money. But first, I will talk about the professor's models that did not live up to expectations and did not bring profit.
Model #1. There is an index of European football clubs, which is called the Euro Club Index. The index goes up when the team wins and goes down when the team loses. The details of the professor's calculations in this model are unknown, but there is reason to believe that this is a variation of the Bradley-Terry logistic regression equation. On the whole, the professor's forecasts based on the Euro Club Index went well, but he failed to beat the bookmakers' margins - he suffered a steady loss.
Another tactic that did not pay off was based on expert opinions - in this case, on the predictions of NBC journalist Joe Prince-Wright (Joe Prince-Wright), who previously successfully predicted the position of clubs in the Premier League in the final standings of the championship. The result of the game according to this model did not satisfy the professor. The mathematician soon changed tactics, concluding in passing: expert predictions are not bad as entertainment, but usually do not help to beat the bookmakers.
A third model, more successful than the first two, used the Poisson distribution, . Each shot on goal was assigned a certain value, which was determined by the historical statistics of shots made in the same position (for example, from inside or outside the box). This method helped the author at the beginning of the season to predict the failure of Chelsea, but led to a reassessment of the chances of Arsenal and Liverpool. He did not lose money, but the forecasts were so bold that the professor decided that this model would hardly be useful at a distance.
The fourth method, which took shape with the professor by the middle of the Premier League season, turned out to be successful - identification of long-term tendentious expectations. A scientist at Uppsala University has noticed in different years a pronounced bias towards underestimation of favorite teams and large clubs. Such was the 2014/2015 season, for example, when betting on Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City to win against teams with a lower position in the standings would bring little income. That is, the top clubs in England won a little more often from outsiders than the coefficients indicated. The professor gave this explanation: players in pursuit of big profits neglected small winnings, reluctantly betting on strong teams, which affected the coefficients. However, in the 2015/2016 Premier League season, there was an adjustment and this trend was reversed - the big favorites were overpriced in the coefficients, which crowned Leicester with the championship at odds up to 5001.0.
At the same time, scientists discovered another long-term trend, which turned out to be the most tenacious: the probability of a draw in top matches is underestimated. There are reasons for this. The media and social networks escalate passions and intransigence before the game, the players themselves do not like to bet on a draw. The famous English football hooligans also do not add to the peace-loving mood in the Premier League. It was long-term trends, including underestimated draw odds, that allowed the professor to win bets often enough to prove a pattern.
It is useful to keep this in mind when betting on Premier League football matches. Mathematics professor David Sumpter wrote about this and much more in his book Soccermatics . It can't be downloaded for free, but I think it's worth the money if you know English.
And finally secret fifth predictive model used by the professor and she is called "Ask your wife" . However, as it turned out, the professor's wife from Sweden also teaches mathematics and knows how to place bets quite well. In any case, within a month she made £17 in profit from an initial amount of £100. Perhaps this is the secret ingredient of a successful forecasting strategy: combine statistical methods and the use of .
All bettors want to receive stable profits from bets in bookmakers. However, not everyone succeeds. Not everyone knows how to calculate the size of bets. Some players lack discipline, which is why they get excited and lose significant amounts.
In this article, we will consider what a bookmaker's client needs to do in order to receive regular income. What are the main approaches used by professional cappers to beat the office in the long run.
Who profits from betting?
There is a myth among many bettors that a very small percentage of players have a regular income from sports betting. This situation was relatively recent, when access to sports statistics was not so global. With the development of online betting, the number of successful players has increased significantly. True, there are more bettors who make risky bets, especially online.
Who is constantly beating the bookies? First of all, these are the players who know how to properly use the game bank for betting. They actively use financial strategies, betting calculators and find value bets. Among the main qualities of professional bettors are the following:
- Ability to work with match statistics
- Proper Banking
- The ability to find profitable positions in the bookmaker's line
- Using Financial and Sports Strategies
- High stress resistance during losing bets
Most experienced bettors generally understand how to place bets correctly. But they fail to stay in the black over a long distance of the game with BC. It is enough to take an ill-considered risk in one or more bets or to analyze the teams' chances incorrectly, and a loss follows. Many rush to win back the money spent, further reducing the game bank. This is absolutely impossible to do.
How do successful players bet? First of all, they pre-study the line as soon as it appears. They select profitable rates (values) that will allow you to make a profit over a long distance. Such positions are usually valued at odds above 2.5. One example is betting on draws in football.
As a rule, quotes for a draw are higher than 3. If you find teams with a large number of draw outcomes, then it is highly likely that bookmakers will set profitable odds for a peaceful outcome. You can learn more about the strategy for betting on a draw in football in this one.
Professional bettors differ from ordinary players in that they know how to refuse unprofitable bets and never seek to win back lost bets. They understand that any bet can be a losing one. Therefore, they set the task of obtaining the total profit not from one bet, but from many bets.
Proper game bank management
One of the main components of successful betting is the correct use of funds on the game account. To make the right bets in the bookmaker, you need to correctly calculate the size of each. To do this, various financial strategies for betting are used. The most popular of them are:
- Flat
- Kelly criterion
- Miller's management
The value of the coefficient directly affects the size of the bet. The optimal value for bets with odds of 2 is 5% of the pot. Beginners can be recommended from 2 to 4%. If for bets with coefficient 2 the bet size is 5%, then for other coefficients the values will be as follows:
If a player uses several sports strategies, then it is reasonable to divide the pot into several parts for each. For example, if a bettor bets on strategies on and on, then this technique will allow you to determine which of them brings more income.
As for the so-called Dogon, in most cases they lead to zeroing the bank. Only a small number of non-aggressive Dogon techniques can be used.
Rate accounting
Controlling the balance of bets is a necessary condition for the game. Without understanding how successful the bettor is in various segments of the game with the office, it is difficult to evaluate his activity. Every bet must be counted. It is necessary to clearly state the coefficient, the size of the bet and the final score of the match.
It is better to create a spreadsheet in which all wins and losses will be summed up. Thus, the player will always know whether they are in plus or minus at the moment. Here is one example of such tables:
Here you can clearly see what event, at what time and with what odds bets are made. Optionally, you can make several tables for different strategies by combining the balance into one. In this way, you can determine the monthly or weekly income. Having spent a certain amount of time to create such tables, the player will be able to competently organize the betting process.
Using a demo account
A very useful tool for betting is a demo account. With its help, you can test sports strategies and test your own ability to bet. In fact, these are training bets.
Some bookmakers, such as Winline, Betcity on their official websites provide users with the opportunity to open a virtual gaming account. These are trial bets. Here, players do not win or lose real money. The betting process is organized in exactly the same way as real money betting. The line with events and the coefficients are the same as the regular one.
What is the use of a demo account? First of all, with its help, beginners quickly adapt to the betting process. They will learn how to correctly calculate the size of the bet, make sure from their own experience which specific sports are suitable for betting and which ones are not, they will be able to choose the best strategies.
Experienced bettors, as a rule, have their own betting methods. They come up with new ways to beat the bookie. It is quite risky to test these methods on bets with real money. With the help of a virtual account, this can be done painlessly for personal funds.
How to find profitable odds in a line?
The most important condition for successful betting is the search for events with favorable odds. How to determine whether the odds for a particular event are profitable or not? To do this, it is necessary to determine the chances that this event will occur and translate these chances into odds. If the odds obtained are higher than the odds of the bookmaker, then the event is profitable for bets.
Odds are converted into odds by dividing 100 by the chance percentage. For example, if the chances of an event are 60%, then in the odds it will be: 100/60= 1.66. To determine the chances of a particular event, you need to use the statistics of the matches played.
For example, team "A" won 7 home matches out of 12. And team "B" lost in 6 away matches out of 12. Based on these statistics, the chances of the hosts winning will be 7/12 = 58%. Chances of losing the opponent: 6/12= 50%. Averaging these values, we get the chances of winning the hosts 54%. We translate this value into a coefficient: 100/54= 1.85. Now it remains to find a bookmaker who set a higher odds for this outcome.
The same methodology is used to determine the chances and odds for other positions in the list: totals, odds, corners. As mentioned above, it is profitable to bet on events with high odds. The difference between real odds and quotes of offices is often very significant.
As an example, you can take bets on the same draws. Quotes for a draw in the German championship are as follows:
If you look at the draw statistics of these teams, you get the following picture:
We see that many teams have more than 30% draw matches. This means that the odds for a draw with their participation should not exceed 3.3. But, as you can see in the example above, in the vast majority of cases, quotes exceed this value. The situation is approximately the same with the odds for underdogs against the favorites.
Break even
Many bettors specialize in betting at certain odds. Some bet on events with odds of 2-2.5, others bet on events with odds of 1.7-1.9. To get a certain profit on bets with specific odds, you need to win a certain number of bets. To do this, you need to determine the break-even point for a particular ratio.
There are break-even point calculators. With its help, the bettor determines how many bet wins he must have at the specified odds in order to receive a certain profit.
In this case, we see that in order to make a profit of 20% from bets on events with a coefficient of 2.5, it is necessary to guess 48% of bets. For events with a coefficient of 1.8, this figure is 66%.
Similar calculators can be found on the Internet in the public domain. For a successful game in bookmakers, you cannot do without them.
Discipline in betting
Many novice players often break down at the first setbacks. In the beginning, they did everything right, used financial and sports strategies, calculated the size of each bet. If, after a series of lost bets, they resorted to aggressive catch-ups, unreasonably overestimated the size of bets, then such actions will inevitably lead to a drain on the bank.
To avoid this, it is necessary to strictly adhere to the chosen tactics. You should never give up and raise the size of the bet even after a losing streak. Experienced players understand that a series of won and lost bets is inevitable. Therefore, they learned to treat them calmly. They clearly understand that after 100 or more bets there should be a total income. It is not so important which bets turned out to be winning and which ones were losing.
It is very important to maintain psychological stability: not to fall into excessive euphoria after a series of wins and not to lose heart after a series of losses.
Fair game
You should not resort to various frauds when playing with a bookmaker. These techniques have long been known to bookmakers. Among the common methods of dishonest play, one can single out the registration of an account under false names, fraud related to the game account, transfer of login and password to other users, joint game with other clients.
It should be clearly understood that such methods are strictly suppressed by the administration of the office. Blocking an account with the inability to withdraw funds will be a very offensive punishment. Registering again in this office will be very difficult, and often impossible.
It is better to play by the rules of the office right away. During the registration process, it is necessary to indicate true data so that later there are no problems with the game account. Clients of legal bookmakers who play by the rules, as a rule, have no problems with withdrawing funds.
conclusions
You can consistently win at bookmakers if you follow all the tips above. It should be clearly understood that this requires a correct assessment of the chances of teams. You need to be able to work with statistics and find profitable bets in the list of betting shops. In no case should you give in to excitement and increase the size of the bet.
Sweet sensations, craving for money, ease of earning without any work - Russians, like people of other countries, are drawn to gambling for a variety of reasons. But at the same time, one must understand that with the dominance of emotions, the uncertainty of rates, winning methods are still not science fiction, but an ordinary reality, where the scientific base does not guarantee a 100% way to beat the bookmaker, but significantly increases the chances.
In order to constantly receive money for bets, you need to know the axioms of bookmakers. You need to choose the right betting strategy and follow it clearly. Then the chances of winning on a regular basis will increase significantly.
You can try to figure out how to beat the bookie. Tips, secrets, at least partially, can help. Let's start with the fact that professionals believe that the successful completion of the bet depends little on super-secret tricky strategies, but most often on how the player follows the specific rules of the game. First you need to understand that the two participants in the process are on opposite sides of the game, achieving their goals.
Although at present, sports betting is not officially classified as gambling by the state, the general principle of the bookmaker's activity is not very different from a regular casino. Here the situation is the same: someone wins, and someone loses their money. In this case, the winner is often the bookmaker himself.
But, unlike casinos, real fans of modern sports can rely on their competence, because victory here often depends on the predicted ability to play well by capable professional athletes. Everything seems to be simple: the teams, the current place of the game, the number of previous victories. But this is the main trap of a player who is already convinced that, by teaming up with a bookmaker, he will definitely win him.
However, statistics show that only two percent of those who bet on modern sports at a bookmaker receive a permanent win. Why? In order to understand this, you need to understand the main principles of the bookmaker's craft.
Bookmakers primarily work to acquire a certain income. It is recruited for them mainly from the volume of successful transactions for them and the number of players who came to the office to put their money on a sporting event. As a result, the commission from any losing client is collected in a single amount and brings in significant capital.
The player, on the other hand, has only one or a maximum of two or three bets, thanks to which he hopes to hit a solid jackpot. Consequently, he has significantly less chances, because of this, you need to play with understanding, reasonably defining the situation.
There are several ways to raise your own level of knowledge in this area. For example, to learn how to beat the bookmaker, the book is quite suitable. Especially if the author is Sergey Galkin.
Sergey Galkin
S. N. Galkin is one of the authors who will help everyone to find simple and reliable ways to increase their chances of winning bets. Sergey Galkin's book "How to beat the bookmaker" deals with financial terms related to betting. If you want to play, this work should be your reference book.
The author will reveal to you the sphere of professional sports, frenzied excitement, precise mathematical calculations and serious feelings. Enter the colorful world of sports betting! The book of an experienced player and prominent scientist Sergey Galkin will be useful both for those who are already confidently walking to the bookmaker's office and for the average reader. The latter can see a lot of interesting information there, and the old player can see non-standard methods and specific tips. And the book is filled with witty lively formulations and subtle jokes.
The main reasons for successful bets
Beating the bookmaker? There is no single correct strategy. But there are a few simple rules that increase the chances of winning when betting on sports games:
- the development of a behavioral factor is autonomous from the result obtained;
- correct determination of the limit of bets placed, strict adherence to it;
- absolute lack of faith in various signs;
- a successful bet is placed on the game event, and not on the selected object;
- indispensable application of the strategy of the proposed game;
- search for the most successful bookmaker;
- using accurate predictions for sports betting.
It is important not to rush from side to side, frantically changing the method of the game, panicking, or, conversely, rejoicing. Success is always on the side of rationality and reason!
behavioral outline
How to beat the bookmaker? Smart bets placed in a variety of ways can help. At the same time, gambling strategies for choosing bets are not clearly defined truths, but, above all, strong recommendations that must be taken in order to get a solid amount of money or at least not lose the latter. A correct assessment of your capabilities gives you a chance to drastically reduce the risk of losing. If a player loses money, then, of course, his desire to quickly and victoriously return them is understandable. Just such a method leads to the loss of rates, and even complete ruin.
Having received bad, losing results of the betting game, in no case try to frantically bet again - you need to take a restful break for a short period and endure at least a couple of hours without playing. A day or a week is better. The time interval will provide an opportunity to recover and remove unnecessary emotions. Rest assured, a break will increase the chances of luck several times over. There are still options on how to beat the bookmaker!
Limit
And one more important rule on the way to winning is not to succumb to excitement beyond measure. There is one good strategy. How to beat the bookmaker? Skillfully use available resources. This helps to come to victory much more effectively than a blind game at random. Brake! Find for yourself a specific limit, more than which you should not assign. This will make it possible, even with repeated losses, to keep most of the bank's funds and not get into monetary debt.
Separately, it should be noted those addicted players who decide to bet on their favorite football (hockey, etc.) team, when the whole logic of events suggests that one should hope for a clear winner in advance.
Often, clients are in captivity will accept. For example, winning (coincidentally!) was accompanied by a random event. And then the player, like Pavlov's dog in training, can understand it as a sign, and will try to bet more just when this symbolic sign appears again.
But you can’t pay attention to such signs in order to create your own gambling strategy for sports games. After all, the result of the events that have occurred depends on too many random factors. The secrets of success in sports betting cannot be based on whether a black cat crossed the road today or not, and today is a good day or (according to signs) a failure. Sober reflection and a little respite will give significantly more chances to win than beliefs and fictitious signs of fate.
Maths
When you have moved away from an overly emotional approach, and are trying to analyze approaches to a problem, then mathematics can come to the rescue. How to beat the bookmaker with math?
In general, you should understand that players are different: some try to take team statistics as a base, others, more emotional, listen to their inner feelings, analyze all kinds of forecasts, but still others think about the exact sciences.
Betting mathematics are methods based on certain calculations. They will not give an absolute guarantee, but one thing must be said for sure - a client guided by science wins much more often. You can check this on two methods out of many.
Flat can be used to place bets with two possible outcomes. The volume of the bet does not change. There is a significant nuance - the proportion of guessing should start from about 52-53%, otherwise defeat is inevitable over a long distance. When a player wins about 60% of the bets out of a hundred attempts, then he has chosen a good strategy. Another condition is that the selected coefficient reaches approximately 1.91.
The second technique regarding how to beat the bookmaker is the Martingale technique: lost the bet - make an attempt more expensive.
Its technique is to win, get even more, and lose - start again with the same indicator. Along with this, the size of the bank is constantly being calculated so that it is enough for several doubled money rates.
Computer programs
In our age of informatization, you can use various services to beat the bookmaker. The program will help to consider all the nuances, make complex and painstaking calculations, and study the analytics of bookmakers' activities. Only such a strict adherence to all these conditions can to some extent guarantee a regular and profitable game for a long period.
Betting programs are different. Moreover, they are popular not only among players, but many bookmakers. Quite often, it is the latter that give clients such tools. Today there are several variants of such betting computer programs.
Some clients of bookmakers use a peculiar way of "forks" for calculations. This is a special program for determining bets on domestic sports, which makes it possible to find the mistakes of the bookmakers themselves. It should be noted that the majority of players have already been able to see the effectiveness of such applications. True, their price reaches several hundred dollars.
Another type of computer program is aimed at creating a comparative calculation of the useful odds of several bookmakers. Of course, for a more profitable game, you need to choose institutions with the highest rates.
Popular programs
Speaking about well-known programs and how to beat a bookmaker with them, we can highlight Footbet. This computer program for determining bets on domestic sports makes it possible to predict the outcome of a football match. At the same time, it necessarily considers freely available statistical materials.
Clients of bookmakers working in the field of tennis games can use the OnCourt program, which has a large database of materials about this game.
"Finright bookmaker" - this computer program for accounting for bets placed on official sports can be used by more experienced customers. It provides information regarding the ratio of working odds and the amount of money already wagered or allocated to a particular game. Such a program makes it possible to easily determine the so-called contractual matches. With its help, players can regularly find updated digital data of the most popular modern sports, including: baseball, domestic basketball, ice hockey, handball, American and regular football. The elements used in the application are configured manually.
Choosing a bookmaker
The answer to the question of whether it is possible to beat a bookmaker also depends on its level. The best bookmaker's office is the one that has a well-established reputation, releases fresh quotes on time, has been working in the field of sports betting for a long time, can earn money on its own and provides a guaranteed opportunity for the client to earn a normal profit. Such institutions give a significant limit on the chosen bet, are guided by a deliberate analysis and correctly change the ratios of game odds.
By choosing some of the best bookmakers for yourself, you will be able to increase your own chances of winning.
Forecast
In general, if we talk about how to beat the bookmaker, we must remember that there are many auxiliary possibilities. If it is difficult for a bettor (especially young) to understand sports details, for example, to understand the specifics of individual teams (after all, one cannot know all the intricacies of football, who is trailing behind and who is a 100% leader), there is an opportunity to buy an accurate sports forecast inexpensively from specialists, who professionally consider the course of matches. Of course, there will be no absolute guarantee, since even the most accurate forecast may not come true due to unpredictable subjective factors, but it is always necessary to have such an opportunity in reserve.
Cautions
Of course, in betting, you always need to have a head on your shoulders. And to win, and not to lose everything. You should never bet the last money in the hope of hitting the jackpot, you should not trust new and suspicious offices that promise 100% earnings, accurate forecasts and huge odds, you should not give in to emotions. Also, do not bet on your favorite team when it is clearly visible that there is another favorite. Cold calculation is what will help beat the bookie.
You can bet in prematch and live. More reliable, but less profitable - the first option. Live, though more risky, but with the skillful use of the bank, you can be guaranteed to take profit at a distance. How to do this with specific examples, we will consider below.
Winning strategies for pre-match betting at a bookmaker
First, the bettor must master a number of basic financial methods for determining the size of the bet. They are related to the value of betting odds, the assessment of the chances of teams or players, as well as statistics in previous matches. The main financial strategies in betting are flat and the Kelly criterion.
Flat
For beginners, the easiest option is to set the standard amount depending on the coefficient. For example, for events with odds close to two, the maximum bet size will be 5% of the pot. For a coefficient of 3.0 we define 4%, and for a coefficient of 4.0 - 3.5%. Percentage values may differ downwards, but not upwards.
How to win at bets in bookmakers according to strategyflat in prematch? One of the most effective methods is betting on the correct score in tennis. You need to bet on winning the favorites with scores of 2-0 and 2-1 in sets. If the game lasts up to three winning sets, then you can add another option 3-2.
The benefit of the bettor here is that he bets with singles in different offices at the highest odds, allocating different amounts for each option. Let's say for a bet on 2-0 with odds of 2, the size of the transaction will be 5%, and for a 2-1 account with odds of 3.5 - 3%. In monetary terms, it will be 100 and 60 rubles, respectively.
If there is a score of 2-0, then the bettor will receive a net profit based on the results of two bets of 40 rubles or 25%. If the second option plays, then the profit will be 50 rubles or 31%. Let's say right away that the coefficient of 3.5 for a score of 2-1 is minimal. Often you can find an office that offers odds for this event up to four.
It is clear that there are moments when the favorite unexpectedly concedes. But in our case, you should choose meetings where the odds for a clear victory vary between 1.35 - 1.45. Also, personal meetings of athletes for several years on this surface and the results in the current and previous tournaments are taken into account. If in personal matches there is a complete dominance of the favorite, then it is suitable for betting. Over a long distance, playing by this method, you can make a profit of up to 10% per month.
More profitable winning strategy at a bookmakerthere will be work on matches of a five-set format. Here, the number of outcome options for the parties is greater, and therefore the quotes are higher. But if you bet on favorites playing on profile surfaces, then the probability of profiting from 3-0 and 3-1 markets will be high.
Kelly criterion
Perhaps the only mathematically sound betting method is the Kelly Criterion. The bettor must independently determine the odds for a certain event and substitute this value, expressed as a percentage, into the following formula:
(K x P - 1) / (K - 1) \u003d S
Here K is the coefficient of the bookmaker's office; P is the probability of an event, which is determined by the bettor. Probability values range from 0 to 1. S is the percentage of the pot that the player allocates for the deal.
The bet makes sense if the final value in the formula is positive. This will always be the case if the bettor estimates the probability of an event lower than the bookmaker. In other words, according to the player, the bookmaker unreasonably overestimates the odds.
Let's say we found an event in the bookmaker's line, which the bookmaker estimated with a coefficient of 1.85. Let it be a bet on the victory of the home team in football. But according to statistics, this team has 60% of wins at home, and the guests were inferior in 50% of guest meetings. Averaging these figures, we get 55%.
We substitute all the values into the formula and get the bet as a percentage of the bank:
(1.85x0.55 - 1) / (1.65 - 1) = 0.027 or 2.7%
In this case, it is correct to allocate 2.6% of the current game bank for a bet with the specified parameters.
Practice shows that one of the most profitable markets in football are draw markets. X quotes often exceed 3, even in cases where the number of peaceful outcomes for opponents is close to 40% and even 50%. This is the same value that gives the player a profit over a long distance. We take into account the statistics of draws at home and away, determine the real percentage, substitute it into the formula, make sure that the value is positive. We put the received interest from the bank. We do this for a long distance of the championship and withdraw money from the game account to a card or electronic wallet.
Live betting in football
There are effectivebetting strategies for winningin live. One of those is the markets for inferior away teams in football championships. The bottom line is that the bettor finds matches in the live list in which a strong middle peasant or a team in the top five is inferior by one goal. The coefficients on X2 in this case lie in the range from 3 to 4.
We bet with a minimum odds of 3.5 to 3% of the game bank. Naturally, we take into account the statistics of previous meetings of the teams. The losing team must have a positive balance of recent away games. Up to two defeats from giants are allowed.
If you play in such markets at odds from 3.5, choosing the right teams, you can earn 30-40% of the bank per month. In this case, only flat is used, when the bet size depends on the coefficient.
